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model discussion

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 9 Oct 03, 7:39 am

In Response To: Plays 10/8 (MarkH)

I expect some variance between my probabilities and the probs implicit in the lines. So I will not post a play just because of a difference, even if it may be 30 or 40 cents. What I am looking for is big differences, which cannot be explained by the fact that my model does not take account of subjective, qualitative factors, so must have something to do with a statistical mispricing. I will use 10% variance in probs as my trigger for a start and see how I go.

Personally, I don't think this is the best method. Your model is going to miss some big things. Like if the center for the Islanders breaks his leg. You have capped

53 NYI 140 107

But a decent amount of sharp money is actually on the Islanders. Is this in your model?

I found that if I had a very large discrepency between my line and the actual line, there was often some reason of which I was not aware. If you are able to backtest, check out how well you would have done when you disagreed with the line by over 20%.

Math Boy

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Messages In This Thread

Plays 10/8 to 12/10 (0-0-0, 0u) (nt) -- MarkH -- 8 Oct 03, 6:52 am
Plays 10/8 -- MarkH -- 8 Oct 03, 7:12 am
Result:1-0-1, +1u -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 5:52 am
model discussion -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 7:39 am
Back testing -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 9:33 am
PS Data -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 9:38 am
watch covers.com ive found errors in their lines -- Joe Nathan -- 9 Oct 03, 8:53 pm
Lines 10/12 -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:16 am
Plays 10/9 -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 6:28 am
Result:3-1-0,+2u -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 6:57 am
10/10 & 11 - No plays - Holidays (nt) -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 6:58 am
No plays 10/12 -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:18 am
Res for Wk to 10/12: 4-1-1, +3u (nt) -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:19 am

 


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