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I completely UNDerstand, thanks.

Posted By: Cutter
Date: 8 Oct 03, 2:30 pm

In Response To: This isn't made by handicapping the games (Math Boy)

yes the topic of median vs. mean scoring in hockey has been discussed last year. It is the median that we care about for betting purposes :)

Yes I also agree that basketball distrubutions can be treated more as a median = mean idea where hockey cannot, due mostly to the large number of scores that occur in a basketball game.

The argument last year resulted in possible value to the over in the grand salami though! Quite the opposite of what we are suggesting with grand salami UND. Given that half the games go over and half go under, neglecting pushes, and assuming that the linesmakers are adding up the totals of each individual game this results in value to the over for the reason that you suggested (games that go over go MORE over than games that go und).

However that said you did answer my questions adequately and explained a very plausable trend for UND's early in the hockey season. I am with you on the UNDers today in general.

Thanks.

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Messages In This Thread

daily salami play, 0-0, +0 units -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 10:38 am
?'s for Mathboy... -- Cutter -- 8 Oct 03, 12:58 pm
This isn't made by handicapping the games -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 1:33 pm
p.s. steam says this is a square play -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 1:35 pm
I completely UNDerstand, thanks. -- Cutter -- 8 Oct 03, 2:30 pm
under/over -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 2:48 pm
are you making the correct bet? -- Ricky -- 9 Oct 03, 12:36 pm
Not speaking for Mathboy however... -- Cutter -- 9 Oct 03, 2:37 pm
result: win 1-0, +1 units -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 7:36 pm
Yeah a bad example of the principles that we discussed with GS... -- Cutter -- 8 Oct 03, 8:04 pm
10/9 pick, YTD 1-0, +1u -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 10:49 am
More Games Better? -- Jesse F. Knight -- 9 Oct 03, 12:20 pm
i have a similar question -- Ricky -- 9 Oct 03, 12:42 pm
I'll answer in a few days -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 1:23 pm
result: win 2-0, +2 units -- Math Boy -- 10 Oct 03, 6:34 am
Let me guess -- Gustav Shoe -- 10 Oct 03, 7:40 am
10/10 pick, YTD, 2-0, +2u -- Math Boy -- 10 Oct 03, 10:42 am
Damn, I'm good (nt) -- Gustav Shoe -- 10 Oct 03, 1:34 pm
result: win 3-0, +3u (nt) -- Math Boy -- 11 Oct 03, 7:09 am
10/11 pick, YTD 3-0, +3u -- Math Boy -- 11 Oct 03, 7:15 am
vroom vroom. nitrover (nt) -- docdekay -- 11 Oct 03, 7:48 am
sux, That day and the next one went under. (nt) -- Math Boy -- 13 Oct 03, 6:46 am
Still think there is value? (nt) -- Ethan -- 13 Oct 03, 9:08 am
I'm betting it for the first ten days of the season. (nt) -- Math Boy -- 13 Oct 03, 9:15 am
Thanks (nt) -- Ethan -- 13 Oct 03, 9:29 am

 


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