NHL Forum

This isn't made by handicapping the games

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 8 Oct 03, 1:33 pm

In Response To: ?'s for Mathboy... (Cutter)

I'm not handicapping the games. I am looking at seasonal trends in the salami. The first ten days of the season the salami tends to go under pretty strongly. I would assume that each game goes under pretty strongly to make this effect.

In general, hockey scores go slightly up during the year. But in the beginning of the year the books are using last year's data to make the totals. So their data says that the scores should be higher than they really are. This is my theory on why the salami goes under the first ten days.

There is a lot of difference between the structure of hockey scoring and something like basketball. Basketball scores are normally distributed. Not much skew. So you are just about as likely to to under by 10 points as you are to go under 10 points. The linesmakers are setting the median line. The median is the mean, so when they make the NBA grand pepperoni they can just add up the totals.

Hockey is a little different. Scoring is distributed more as a poisson. (You have to adjust for overtime.) But there is positive skew. When you go under you are more likely to go under by fewer points than when you go over. The mean is greater than the meadian. Luckily, means add in the poisson. So to find the salami we have to find the means of the game given the median, add up the means, and then find the median of the salami.

If you don't understand what I just wrote you are not alone. Because I don't trust all the bookmakers are that sophisticated. Just know that if the individual game totals are correct, the salami should go over a little more than expected.

But on the other side I believe the totals are shaded a little too high to screw the punters. So there is a little balance here. The skew effect is more when there are fewer games, so I should be betting more on thin Monday schedules.

Math Boy

Messages In This Thread

daily salami play, 0-0, +0 units -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 10:38 am

?'s for Mathboy... -- Cutter -- 8 Oct 03, 12:58 pm

This isn't made by handicapping the games -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 1:33 pm

p.s. steam says this is a square play -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 1:35 pm

I completely UNDerstand, thanks. -- Cutter -- 8 Oct 03, 2:30 pm

under/over -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 2:48 pm

are you making the correct bet? -- Ricky -- 9 Oct 03, 12:36 pm

Not speaking for Mathboy however... -- Cutter -- 9 Oct 03, 2:37 pm

result: win 1-0, +1 units -- Math Boy -- 8 Oct 03, 7:36 pm

Yeah a bad example of the principles that we discussed with GS... -- Cutter -- 8 Oct 03, 8:04 pm

10/9 pick, YTD 1-0, +1u -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 10:49 am

More Games Better? -- Jesse F. Knight -- 9 Oct 03, 12:20 pm

i have a similar question -- Ricky -- 9 Oct 03, 12:42 pm

I'll answer in a few days -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 1:23 pm

result: win 2-0, +2 units -- Math Boy -- 10 Oct 03, 6:34 am

Let me guess -- Gustav Shoe -- 10 Oct 03, 7:40 am

10/10 pick, YTD, 2-0, +2u -- Math Boy -- 10 Oct 03, 10:42 am

Damn, I'm good (nt) -- Gustav Shoe -- 10 Oct 03, 1:34 pm

result: win 3-0, +3u (nt) -- Math Boy -- 11 Oct 03, 7:09 am

10/11 pick, YTD 3-0, +3u -- Math Boy -- 11 Oct 03, 7:15 am

vroom vroom. nitrover (nt) -- docdekay -- 11 Oct 03, 7:48 am

sux, That day and the next one went under. (nt) -- Math Boy -- 13 Oct 03, 6:46 am

Still think there is value? (nt) -- Ethan -- 13 Oct 03, 9:08 am

I'm betting it for the first ten days of the season. (nt) -- Math Boy -- 13 Oct 03, 9:15 am

Thanks (nt) -- Ethan -- 13 Oct 03, 9:29 am

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