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Poisson Modeling won't work

Posted By: boopotts
Date: 28 Oct 03, 10:07 pm

In Response To: 10/29 (MarkH)

I'm of the opinion that it's very difficult to work a poisson model for NHL sides and totals, since most who try this will be weighing each goal the same-- when, in fact, each goals value differs for handicapping purposes. For example, you're going to end up betting some heavy, heavy chalk using this method, since when you come up with St. Louis 3.4 goals and Nashville 2.4 goals it will look like St. Lou is a slam dunk. But, that 3.4 number also included empty netters, goals when St. Lou is already up by three, etc. etc. In other words, you'll be including 'non-competitive' goals in the equation, when these goals almost never have any bearing on the result of a game.

This happens with favorites in the NHL quite a bit; a team goes up 3-0 in the first period, the other team begins to press (only keeping one man back, etc.) and the chalk ends up winning 6-1. Looks good on the stat sheet, but for handicapping purposes those last three goals carry signifiantly less value then the first three.

If you look back on past results, I think you'll find that big chalk in the NHL (-180 or more) is a negative subset. Yet, if poisson worked this wouldn't be the case.

Hope this is of some value,

Guy

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Messages In This Thread

Wk of 10/28, 7-8-4, -8.3u (nt) -- MarkH -- 28 Oct 03, 6:09 am
10/29 -- MarkH -- 28 Oct 03, 6:21 am
Poisson Modeling won't work -- boopotts -- 28 Oct 03, 10:07 pm
Thanks -- MarkH -- 29 Oct 03, 9:44 pm
Heavy Chalk -- Matt Baker -- 30 Oct 03, 6:00 am
Res: 3-2-0, +1.15u (nt) -- MarkH -- 29 Oct 03, 9:45 pm
10/30 -- MarkH -- 29 Oct 03, 9:57 pm
Res: 5-0-0, +5.65u (nt) -- MarkH -- 31 Oct 03, 5:58 am
10/31 -- MarkH -- 31 Oct 03, 6:34 am
Res: 0-1-0, -1.35u (nt) -- MarkH -- 1 Nov 03, 4:05 am
11/1 -- MarkH -- 1 Nov 03, 4:40 am
Res: 3-0-2, +3.1u -- MarkH -- 2 Nov 03, 3:19 am
11/2 -- MarkH -- 2 Nov 03, 6:51 am
Res: 1-0-0, +1u (nt) -- MarkH -- 2 Nov 03, 9:37 pm

 


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