[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

NHL Forum

Plays 10/8

Posted By: MarkH
Date: 8 Oct 03, 7:12 am

In Response To: Plays 10/8 to 12/10 (0-0-0, 0u) (nt) (MarkH)


Comparison between widely available moneylines/totals, and my moneyline/total from my model: 

		WA Line	My Line 

 

1	NJ	u5-115	u5-112 

2	BOS	105	-155 

 

3	MIN	u5-145	u5-177 

4	CHI	-140	-115 

 

5	ANA	u5-120	u5-131 

6	DAL	-185	-373


I expect some variance between my probabilities and the probs implicit in the lines. So I will not post a play just because of a difference, even if it may be 30 or 40 cents. What I am looking for is big differences, which cannot be explained by the fact that my model does not take account of subjective, qualitative factors, so must have something to do with a statistical mispricing. I will use 10% variance in probs as my trigger for a start and see how I go.

On this basis I have two plays today:

BOS +105 v NJ
DAL -185 v ANA

The Dallas pick looks a bit strange, given I say the line should be -373 and Anaheim were great last year. But Dallas have a great home average for (>3) and equally great against (<2). This is reflected in the preseason results (3 solid wins from 4 starts at home). See how my money line play goes.

Happy to discuss methodology etc with anyone else whose interested. Basically just poisson probs using predicted home and visitor goals from average home and road goals for and against over the past year.

I will usually post early sometimes overnight, so that if anyone wants to discuss, we can get some chat going.

MarkH








Password:

Messages In This Thread

Plays 10/8 to 12/10 (0-0-0, 0u) (nt) -- MarkH -- 8 Oct 03, 6:52 am
Plays 10/8 -- MarkH -- 8 Oct 03, 7:12 am
Result:1-0-1, +1u -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 5:52 am
model discussion -- Math Boy -- 9 Oct 03, 7:39 am
Back testing -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 9:33 am
PS Data -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 9:38 am
watch covers.com ive found errors in their lines -- Joe Nathan -- 9 Oct 03, 8:53 pm
Lines 10/12 -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:16 am
Plays 10/9 -- MarkH -- 9 Oct 03, 6:28 am
Result:3-1-0,+2u -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 6:57 am
10/10 & 11 - No plays - Holidays (nt) -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 6:58 am
No plays 10/12 -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:18 am
Res for Wk to 10/12: 4-1-1, +3u (nt) -- MarkH -- 12 Oct 03, 7:19 am

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

NHL Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press