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why not?

Posted By: Mr. W
Date: 17 Oct 03, 10:27 am

In Response To: public bias (Joe Nathan)

I define "public" as 1st glance bettors. Perhaps "square" is the more common term.

As a % of money wagered on any given game, why wouldn't there be any potential "square" bias to lines? especially with the continued growth of internet betting options!

In NYC, I know plenty of Wall St money placed on NHL games that aren't "sharp"...

If you want to know my method, I use power ratings to assess expected lines vs. actual and look to investigate deviations that may occur due to books incorporating a "public" bias. This method has worked well for me in football and basketball; MLB and NHL remains a work in progress...

gl!

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Messages In This Thread

Picks Thread: Oct-13 thru Oct-19; 1st Picks -- Mr. W -- 16 Oct 03, 9:41 am
Oct-16 Picks -- Mr. W -- 16 Oct 03, 9:44 am
res: 0-2; -2.0 units (nt) -- Mr. W -- 16 Oct 03, 7:03 pm
Oct-17 Picks -- Mr. W -- 17 Oct 03, 5:10 am
res: 0-1; -1.0 units (nt) -- Mr. W -- 18 Oct 03, 6:52 am
public bias -- Joe Nathan -- 17 Oct 03, 5:13 am
why not? -- Mr. W -- 17 Oct 03, 10:27 am
Re: -- Joe Nathan -- 17 Oct 03, 11:59 am
Oct-18 Picks -- Mr. W -- 17 Oct 03, 8:51 pm
res: 2-2-1; +0.40 units -- Mr. W -- 19 Oct 03, 7:11 am
Oct-19 Picks -- Mr. W -- 19 Oct 03, 7:20 am
res: 1-0; +1.0 units (nt) -- Mr. W -- 20 Oct 03, 5:06 am

 


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