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Some musings

Posted By: MarkH
Date: 14 Oct 03, 7:48 am

In Response To: Why wasn't Columbus a play then? (Cutter)

On my calculations the % diff between a +130 and -105 is about 7.7% (43.5% to 51.2%) so not a play for me. Wish it had been :).

There is no magic to the 10%. I picked a threshold that would not give me too few plays, but where the difference is big enough to make you think, hey there must be something wrong with this line. Math Boy has said that maybe I will end up picking games where something I haven not taken into account (eg an injury) justifies a big adjustment. He might be right. I am really just testing things as I go. So far so good. A bit further down the track I might back test and see where I would have got to if I had chosen a different threshold.

MarkH

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Messages In This Thread

Wk of 10/13 to 10/19 (4-1-1, +3u) (nt) -- MarkH -- 13 Oct 03, 7:31 am
Lines 10/13 -- MarkH -- 13 Oct 03, 7:41 am
a thought... -- Joe Nathan -- 13 Oct 03, 3:32 pm
Inconsistent format, causing me confusion... -- Cutter -- 13 Oct 03, 3:52 pm
Format -- MarkH -- 13 Oct 03, 10:53 pm
Why wasn't Columbus a play then? -- Cutter -- 14 Oct 03, 12:33 am
I agree with everything Cutter said (nt) -- Math Boy -- 14 Oct 03, 5:23 am
Some musings -- MarkH -- 14 Oct 03, 7:48 am
Lines 10/14 -- MarkH -- 14 Oct 03, 8:16 am
Lines 10/15 -- MarkH -- 15 Oct 03, 8:29 am
Result: 0-1-0, -2.4u (nt) -- MarkH -- 16 Oct 03, 7:34 am
10/16 -- MarkH -- 16 Oct 03, 7:48 am
Result: 1-1-0, +0.15u -- MarkH -- 16 Oct 03, 10:49 pm
10/18 -- MarkH -- 18 Oct 03, 9:23 am
Res:1-1-2, -0.75u -- MarkH -- 19 Oct 03, 8:52 am
10/19 -- MarkH -- 19 Oct 03, 8:57 am

 


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