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We do agree to disagree, though I manage to do it w/out insulting others

Posted By: warren ball
Date: 9 Jul 03, 12:25 pm

In Response To: Monte Carlo (Ben)

A trait of your posts is the insulting of those who disagree with you. I hope you can get past that one day.

Our basic disagreement rests with quantifiability versus judgement. You seem to believe that everything can be reduced to numbers. You evidently love Monte Carlo simulation and believe that it can resolve everything. I am not familiar with it but I am very familiar with statistics, including "outliers", which you seem to think exists only for MC sim.

Simple standard deviation accounts for unexpected results as well. For instance, the standard deviation from the mean of a power rating result is 7- which is why the books tease with 6. Most game results will fall within one standard deviation either way. A second deviation will include further outliers.

The 41-0 Jet victory over the Colts in the playoffs was pretty extreme and may have fell within 1% of expected results at the edge of the bell curve but I knew it would be a blowout from the injury status of the Colt DL versus the excellent Jet OL; that was judgement, not numbers. If the Monte Carlo simulation can be shown to have predicted a blowout for that game, then I will be your most zealous convert.

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Messages In This Thread

Deciding A Team's Power Rating -- Joe College -- 1 Jul 03, 4:48 am
Power Ratings -- Ed -- 1 Jul 03, 1:41 pm
I am in the process of creating my own -- Billy Ford -- 1 Jul 03, 5:00 pm
I knew there'd be at least one... -- Joe College -- 1 Jul 03, 6:24 pm
mratings.com (nt) -- Ben -- 2 Jul 03, 8:48 am
Power ratings not terribly important -- Warren Ball -- 2 Jul 03, 2:52 am
what do you mean by that? -- Defenestrator -- 2 Jul 03, 5:39 am
Pardon me -- Warren Ball -- 2 Jul 03, 9:55 am
If you make your ratings like everyone else -- Ben -- 3 Jul 03, 5:51 pm
I was referring only to power ratings -- Warren Ball -- 4 Jul 03, 4:28 am
Using this method alone is not good enough -- Ben -- 4 Jul 03, 7:59 am
Nope. -- Warren Ball -- 6 Jul 03, 3:31 am
Your Final PR = Oddsmakers Line + Your Esoteric Factors -- Ben -- 6 Jul 03, 6:07 am
One cannot quantify these things -- Warren Ball -- 7 Jul 03, 4:40 am
Sure you can, if you have enough info -- Ben -- 7 Jul 03, 1:10 pm
As I wrote -- warren ball -- 8 Jul 03, 3:26 am
twominutewarning is doing it well -- Ben -- 8 Jul 03, 5:08 am
I've been on twominutewarning many times -- Warren Ball -- 8 Jul 03, 6:49 am
a comment on TMW -- Ricky -- 8 Jul 03, 9:24 am
TMW -- Ben -- 8 Jul 03, 1:05 pm
I have a big problem they hide their record. -- Ricky -- 8 Jul 03, 2:48 pm
TMW Rocks! -- bassix -- 8 Jul 03, 3:38 pm
non-representation = massive misrepresentation -- Ricky -- 8 Jul 03, 3:48 pm
TMW:It just IS what it IS... -- bassix -- 8 Jul 03, 4:19 pm
so what's the link to their total record? they ignored my email. (nt) -- ricky -- 8 Jul 03, 5:44 pm
Dunno...not what I asked them for (nt) -- bassix -- 8 Jul 03, 5:48 pm
oh, i thought you had seen it. -- ricky -- 8 Jul 03, 5:52 pm
I never paid much attention to... -- bassix -- 8 Jul 03, 6:35 pm
hell, post the records... -- Ben -- 8 Jul 03, 3:49 pm
When did I admit that? -- Ben -- 8 Jul 03, 12:52 pm
When you wrote about using MC simulator -- warren ball -- 9 Jul 03, 4:21 am
Monte Carlo -- Ben -- 9 Jul 03, 4:52 am
you guys are arguing two different things -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 9 Jul 03, 6:04 am
You are correct -- warren ball -- 9 Jul 03, 12:07 pm
We do agree to disagree, though I manage to do it w/out insulting others -- warren ball -- 9 Jul 03, 12:25 pm
No we are arguing about the same thing -- Ben -- 9 Jul 03, 3:01 pm
Results -- warren ball -- 10 Jul 03, 1:53 am
? -- Ben -- 10 Jul 03, 3:41 am
No style points -- warren ball -- 10 Jul 03, 5:29 am
I can't, it is not for public consumption (nt) -- Ben -- 10 Jul 03, 1:56 pm
Quick & dirty power ratings -- Stanford Wong -- 2 Jul 03, 9:43 am
Dont use Home Team = 3 Points -- Ben -- 2 Jul 03, 2:25 pm
proof? -- Tiresias -- 2 Jul 03, 3:44 pm
Proof? Who do you think I am? Mr. Kneejerk.. -- Ben -- 2 Jul 03, 4:29 pm
probs with those ratings -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 3 Jul 03, 4:17 am
Those are separate factors -- Warren Ball -- 3 Jul 03, 6:42 am
15 of 32 teams -- Ben -- 3 Jul 03, 9:36 am
Well, I doubt that many teams would have an HFA much more or less than 3 (nt) -- Warren Ball -- 4 Jul 03, 4:13 am
Half a Point Edge is significant, it might not seem like it (nt) -- Ben -- 4 Jul 03, 7:57 am
not entirely -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 3 Jul 03, 9:44 am
No, HFA is differnce between Home & Away Performances -- Ben -- 3 Jul 03, 5:43 pm
Compered to college? -- Joe College -- 2 Jul 03, 6:21 pm
You can't, because all win totals are not available (nt) -- Ben -- 2 Jul 03, 6:41 pm
Depends on the Sport -- Ben -- 2 Jul 03, 2:37 pm
And where do you start? -- Joe College -- 2 Jul 03, 6:19 pm
PR Info -- Ben -- 2 Jul 03, 6:41 pm

 


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