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"Can" as in "do," no. "Can" as in "could," yes.

Posted By: Stanford Wong
Date: 6 Jul 03, 5:07 am

In Response To: but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? (Ricky)

but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? ... I know this has been argued a bit here....but I will ask it anyway....does the capper really know when he has a 57% game versus when he has a 53% game? (talking about vs WA lines, not when you get a free half point or anything like that).

The reason we hit 55% is the 10:11 payoffs we face. Hitting 55% gives us a decent return after paying the vig. If we had to face 10:12 instead of 10:11, we'd hit 57%, and we'd make fewer bets. We can tell 57% picks from 55% picks if we want to, but if we don't need to so we don't bother to do it.

Telling the difference between a 57% game and a 53% game requires spending more time handicapping that game. Once you have studied a game enough to know that a team is worth betting, what would you rather do with your time? Do you keep looking into that same game trying to fine-tune your edge, or do you start looking at another game hoping to find another bet? Probably you are better off looking for another team to bet.

Stanford Wong

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Messages In This Thread

Dan Gordon's Autobigraphical History 1980-2000 -- Fezzik -- 2 Jul 03, 10:44 am
What's your conclusion? -- Ricky -- 2 Jul 03, 7:23 pm
Agree, driving 55 is VERY tough. (nt) -- Fezzik -- 3 Jul 03, 10:45 am
I disagree -- daringly -- 4 Jul 03, 3:40 am
comments -- Ricky -- 4 Jul 03, 7:20 pm
The record should be looked at on the margin -- Don Peszynski -- 5 Jul 03, 6:10 am
but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? -- Ricky -- 5 Jul 03, 9:08 am
Great point -- Warren Ball -- 6 Jul 03, 3:54 am
"Can" as in "do," no. "Can" as in "could," yes. -- Stanford Wong -- 6 Jul 03, 5:07 am
weighting games -- Ricky -- 6 Jul 03, 6:16 am
I love this, if you should bet more on the 57 then how much more... -- Ben -- 6 Jul 03, 7:50 am
This is true but haven't you advocated ascertaining the exact advantage for -- Warren Ball -- 7 Jul 03, 4:48 am
57 % -- betmaster -- 3 Jul 03, 4:24 pm
Gordon's Book -- easyrider -- 19 Jul 03, 12:36 pm

 


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