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Great point

Posted By: Warren Ball
Date: 6 Jul 03, 3:54 am

In Response To: but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? (Ricky)

One must actually be able to calculate one's advantage if one wants to vary the bet size.

I always put the cart before the horse. I ran stats thru a program I wrote to determine the actual percentages, then I bet the highest percentages. For instance, of all the spreads the 3.5 point line was the highest percentage hitter with the dog, at almost 70%. The logic was easy to see, as the AMV in the NFL was 3. So whenever I could get 3.5 points (rare though it was), I expected to hit at 70%.

The other way is to measure one's results. If your handicapping tools give you a 57% expected win rate but you hit at 55%, then your tools are off. Perhaps you use many tools to handicap a game; then some factors may hit your estimate of your advantage and others might not. You have to adjust your expectation based on your keeping accurate records of your results. A nice thing at this site is that the records of the cappers are kept for years for everyone to see. You thus get a very accurate win rate of them.

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Messages In This Thread

Dan Gordon's Autobigraphical History 1980-2000 -- Fezzik -- 2 Jul 03, 10:44 am
What's your conclusion? -- Ricky -- 2 Jul 03, 7:23 pm
Agree, driving 55 is VERY tough. (nt) -- Fezzik -- 3 Jul 03, 10:45 am
I disagree -- daringly -- 4 Jul 03, 3:40 am
comments -- Ricky -- 4 Jul 03, 7:20 pm
The record should be looked at on the margin -- Don Peszynski -- 5 Jul 03, 6:10 am
but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? -- Ricky -- 5 Jul 03, 9:08 am
Great point -- Warren Ball -- 6 Jul 03, 3:54 am
"Can" as in "do," no. "Can" as in "could," yes. -- Stanford Wong -- 6 Jul 03, 5:07 am
weighting games -- Ricky -- 6 Jul 03, 6:16 am
I love this, if you should bet more on the 57 then how much more... -- Ben -- 6 Jul 03, 7:50 am
This is true but haven't you advocated ascertaining the exact advantage for -- Warren Ball -- 7 Jul 03, 4:48 am
57 % -- betmaster -- 3 Jul 03, 4:24 pm
Gordon's Book -- easyrider -- 19 Jul 03, 12:36 pm

 


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