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The record should be looked at on the margin

Posted By: Don Peszynski
Date: 5 Jul 03, 6:10 am

In Response To: comments (Ricky)

Breaking it down into subsets, the bettor would go 13-7 on his 1st twenty games, 11-9 on his next 20, 31-29 on the next 60 (breakeven at -107) and 51-49 on his last 100. Depending on the vig he's laying, he should eliminate the last 100 plays, and the third subset is marginal. You should not base your selection of plays on your overall record, but rather on the record of the subset in question.

If a bettor goes 30-20 in his first 50 plays and goes 25-25 in his second 50, he's got a 55% win rate. But clearly he would have been better off passing on the second tier of plays.

Messages In This Thread

Dan Gordon's Autobigraphical History 1980-2000 -- Fezzik -- 2 Jul 03, 10:44 am

What's your conclusion? -- Ricky -- 2 Jul 03, 7:23 pm

Agree, driving 55 is VERY tough. (nt) -- Fezzik -- 3 Jul 03, 10:45 am

I disagree -- daringly -- 4 Jul 03, 3:40 am

comments -- Ricky -- 4 Jul 03, 7:20 pm

The record should be looked at on the margin -- Don Peszynski -- 5 Jul 03, 6:10 am

but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? -- Ricky -- 5 Jul 03, 9:08 am

Great point -- Warren Ball -- 6 Jul 03, 3:54 am

"Can" as in "do," no. "Can" as in "could," yes. -- Stanford Wong -- 6 Jul 03, 5:07 am

weighting games -- Ricky -- 6 Jul 03, 6:16 am

I love this, if you should bet more on the 57 then how much more... -- Ben -- 6 Jul 03, 7:50 am

This is true but haven't you advocated ascertaining the exact advantage for -- Warren Ball -- 7 Jul 03, 4:48 am

57 % -- betmaster -- 3 Jul 03, 4:24 pm

Gordon's Book -- easyrider -- 19 Jul 03, 12:36 pm

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