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Dan Gordon's Autobigraphical History 1980-2000

Posted By: Fezzik
Date: 2 Jul 03, 10:44 am

I just reread his book, as I prepare for 2003 football. A nice handicapping work, with many solid tips on handicapping and what to look for, and some great insights on what works for a winning handicapper and his schedule through an entire week, and how he tracks each time. Get it. Read it. Learn from it.

As far as optimal betting, you can pretty much ignore the Gordon book (that's my politically correct way to say use those pages to help clean up your car's oil leak) , and use Wong's instead. Unless you want to rely on things like charts that show you NFL no-vig MLs should be -110 for 2.5 point favorites, -150 for 3 point favorites, and -160 for 3.5 point favorites, etc. No reason to list all the examples of misinformation, but feel to go through and identify them on your own.

But let me move on. On my own reread, I am pretty surprised about some of the self documented history I've read. To be fair, I want to give Dan the highest marks for what no doubt is likely one of the most honest and true description of performance any sports'gaming author has ever given. I have no doubt Dan is an honest guy about his endeavors, and that quality shows in his writing. I believe he attempts to be truthful in everything that he writes. I don't have the book in front of me, so my dates may be off, but what I recall is:

1979: He admits to basically busting out betting NFL.

1980/1: He publicly made his picks available via some media source.
I believe he wins during those years.

Curious. A guy goes virtually belly-up betting himself, but immediately after wants to be an expert telling others what to bet?
This was probably the biggest red flag of the whole book for me!

1982: I believe he indicates he had another losing year.

1983/1984: He documents winning, but getting booted from bookies. Likely these were against bookies with soft lines.

1985/1986: He heads to Vegas, and I believe loses in 1985, does better in 1986. From the experience, he concludes one really needs to be in Vegas to win at betting, due to the great line access.

1987/1988. With 1987's strike shortened year, he stays out of Vegas, and admits to not even betting for a few years (consistent with the above statement that he thought it a waste of time without great line access). Wow. I don't know many 57% bettors (or 54%!)that sit on the sidelines for years just because they don't have many "outs"!

1989-1992. Am I the only one thinking this was really sketchy stuff? Some information about his picks, who he is providing his picks to, and who he is writing with, and little disclosure about his betting performance.

1993-1994. Took these years completely off. Maybe to master the game of Scrabble, or maybe to hike Everest. A reasonable conclusion is that he either a) made a killing in the early 90s and went off to enjoy his new fortune or b) Found it pretty tough sledding to make much money betting the NFL and NBA. Personally, my money is on "B", especially based on the 1987-1992 years'description. or lack of it.

1995. Back to the betting game. Crunch! A minus 5 unit losing year, explained away by him since "it was a bad year for dogs".

1996-2000: Clear sailing, and a solid win rate that looks to be self described as almost 60%.

He concludes in the book that based on his 20 year's experience, he believes he is justified in expecting a 57% win rate going forward.

Is it just me, or does this 20 year "57%"win rate, really appear to be a 5 year shorter-term 57% win rate?

Sorry to be Columbo in all this. I'm just curious if anyone else reading his documentation stopped to ask "Where's the beef?". The best items on his resume are marketing stuff during the year, not betting!

Messages In This Thread

Dan Gordon's Autobigraphical History 1980-2000 -- Fezzik -- 2 Jul 03, 10:44 am

What's your conclusion? -- Ricky -- 2 Jul 03, 7:23 pm

Agree, driving 55 is VERY tough. (nt) -- Fezzik -- 3 Jul 03, 10:45 am

I disagree -- daringly -- 4 Jul 03, 3:40 am

comments -- Ricky -- 4 Jul 03, 7:20 pm

The record should be looked at on the margin -- Don Peszynski -- 5 Jul 03, 6:10 am

but is it clear that the capper can tell the difference? -- Ricky -- 5 Jul 03, 9:08 am

Great point -- Warren Ball -- 6 Jul 03, 3:54 am

"Can" as in "do," no. "Can" as in "could," yes. -- Stanford Wong -- 6 Jul 03, 5:07 am

weighting games -- Ricky -- 6 Jul 03, 6:16 am

I love this, if you should bet more on the 57 then how much more... -- Ben -- 6 Jul 03, 7:50 am

This is true but haven't you advocated ascertaining the exact advantage for -- Warren Ball -- 7 Jul 03, 4:48 am

57 % -- betmaster -- 3 Jul 03, 4:24 pm

Gordon's Book -- easyrider -- 19 Jul 03, 12:36 pm

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