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NFL betting strategy - please critique

Posted By: Howard Kelly
Date: 2 May 03, 11:53 pm

NFL - The most overanalyzed data. What information do I have to gain an edge? - An analysis of my own betting patterns. I am not a "super sharp". I may or may not be a "semi sharp" I make my own lines (and have for years). My lines are a combination of math logic and my own opinion.

1) I have developed a % frequency of game margins table based on the recent 2 point conversion years. This is somewhat similar to SW's table on page 234.

I then measure my past lines against my available betting lines and record the % middled (if any). I then plot my won/loss record from lowest % to highest % in the 4 categories of home fav & dog and away fav & dog. At the point in the % chart where I have a clear, high positive win rate = a bet to be made.

Note: Almost every capper has some sort of bias- home,dog,etc. I must have an away bias - because my % charts allow a relatively low threshold to bet home teams (both fav & dog) and an extremely high barrier to bet away teams.

I also plot my won/loss records against each betting line # in each of the 4 categories. See # 3.

2) Taken out of the % frequency games at the start of this process are two categories: False Favorite - A game where I have made the dog the fav & PK - A game where I make the line pk. I am only comfortable getting + 3 in both situations.

3) From the positive % games, I take out games against a # that I have a poor record. ie. - 3.5 and I add games against certain lines that I have a very positive record. ie +7

This is my most troubling methodology to rationalize. Am i just massaging data? Or is the way I make lines likely to lead to favorable & unfavorable situations? Or bacause I don't take % of sides in my % analysis, I leave games on the table. ie. My line is 6 & betting line is 7. I don't add all positive records against specific lines - ie I don't add high favorites. I was considering eliminating this method but it has added value to my results.

4) Because the line 3 is so crucial, I have studied my results from every possible angle. This added one significant subset. When my line is Home Dog + 3, bet all games over 3.

I have other criterea such as playoff games, etc but they are not significant and I will spare the minutia.

5) Lastly, I follow 2 different cappers and add some of their games(based on analysis, yada,yada,yada) These games equal 13% of my total bets - volatility smoothing.

I have studied the results of different betting lines,division games,highlighted games(Mon,etc), seasonality of my picks, SW's lines versus mine. While there appears to be positive areas to explore, right now I am wary of cutting a small sample even smaller.

Any comments, pro or con are welcome.

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Messages In This Thread

NFL betting strategy - please critique -- Howard Kelly -- 2 May 03, 11:53 pm
here is the ats nfl trick -- MT -- 4 May 03, 1:30 pm
oooooooooo -- The Truth -- 11 May 03, 3:59 am
ats nfl trick -- Frank B -- 21 May 03, 6:19 am
and -- The Truth -- 21 May 03, 3:30 pm
then lets see who has a better ats win % i'd wager on ME BILLIE (nt) -- Billy Ford -- 14 Jun 03, 2:56 pm
NFL constantly overrates the effect QB's RB's and WR's... -- Bad Cutter -- 22 May 03, 9:51 am
you were a center, Cutter? -- Mr. Tomasulo -- 22 May 03, 12:07 pm
1990-93 (shouldn't have been) -- Bad Cutter -- 22 May 03, 12:43 pm
Nice post Cutter -- WillyHoppy -- 26 May 03, 11:18 am
Really? -- Warren Ball -- 22 May 03, 4:24 am
I would consider eliminating #3 -- anon -- 21 May 03, 7:12 pm
Thanks anon. Model changes every year -- Howard Kelly -- 22 May 03, 11:39 pm
nfl lines -- Michael -- 26 May 03, 7:02 am
I agree with your injury/line reasoning -- Howard Kelly -- 26 May 03, 3:52 pm
lines -- Michael -- 28 May 03, 11:59 am
My research on injuries does not support your theory. -- Overlay -- 27 May 03, 1:06 pm
Exactly how did you research these injuries? -- Secretariat -- 28 May 03, 6:36 am
Answers -- Overlay -- 28 May 03, 10:49 am
Injury data -- Howard Kelly -- 1 Jun 03, 8:59 am
I don't know -- Overlay -- 2 Jun 03, 4:59 am

 


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