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I guess you are right

Posted By: Math Boy
Date: 28 Oct 03, 10:48 am

In Response To: Why do you like the Atlantic Teams so much? (Ricky)

Rought Season win over/unders :
NJ 52
ORL 44
BOS 42.5
PHI 45.5
MIA 35
WAS 30.5
NY 33.5

only one of them exceed IND's 48.5. From your posts, it sounds like you think 2 or 3 of the teams in the Atlantic are expected to win more games than IND, but clearly that's not what the market is implying. The season win market is implying that IND is the 2nd best team in the Central, and the 3rd best team in the East...that's where I get my assumption that they are expected to win the 3rd seed. Of course, if you have strong feelings on betting in the season totals, that would throw the assumptions off-kilter.

I guess you are right. You can't really put teams in a strict power rating by season win totals because of differences in Division and Conference. I was thinking that if Indiana doesn't win the Division, they are about the 4th or 5th best team in the east. But what really counts is their record. In the Central they get to beat up on:
CLE 28.5
CHI 36.5
ATL 33
TOR 38

In the Atlantic they only get to beat up on:
MIA 35
WAS 30
NY 33.5

So they should have a better record than if they were in the Atlantic. The second best record in the Central will probably be higher than the second best record in the Atlantic from this effect. They may not be the third best team, but they may well have the third best record. Of course on the up side, they may do better. I haven't put together a set of power ratings on each team to make my own season win totals.

Math Boy

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Messages In This Thread

Indiana -- Ricky -- 27 Oct 03, 3:14 pm
I was considering UNDER 50.0 future... -- Mr. W -- 27 Oct 03, 3:43 pm
Looks like a reasonable bet. -- Math Boy -- 27 Oct 03, 6:20 pm
you didn't mention DET -- Ricky -- 27 Oct 03, 9:34 pm
Detroit was Carlisle. -- Math Boy -- 28 Oct 03, 5:23 am
Why do you like the Atlantic Teams so much? -- Ricky -- 28 Oct 03, 7:38 am
I guess you are right -- Math Boy -- 28 Oct 03, 10:48 am

 


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