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Value of a game

Posted By: James
Date: 31 Aug 01, 11:11 am

In Response To: Schedule correlation effect (James)

Looking again at the NL West (still assigning all teams equal strength, contrary to fact).

3 days ago I wrote:
Arizona 75 55
SF 73 58
LA 72 59

Arizona 62%
SF 23%
LA 15%

Now, SF and LA have both dropped a game to Arizona, there are 3 games less left in the season, and SF has used up 3 of their 6 head-to-head games against Arizona.

Arizona 77 56
SF 74 60
LA 73 61

Arizona 73%
SF 16%
LA 11%

SF wasting 3 of their head-to-head games with Arizona only cost them about 1%; almost all of the drop is due to the 1-game swing in the standings.

How important is a single game this late in the season?

Currently Atlanta is one game ahead of the Phillies in the NL East, 72-61 to 71-62.

Again, assuming both teams have a 50% chance of winning all their remaining games (not far from the mark lately-- both teams are roughly .500 since the All-Star break):

Atlanta wins 59% (-145 favorite)
Phillies win 41%

After tonight's games, the Phillies could be tied for the lead, remain a game back, or drop 2 games back.

Here is how important a single game can be:

Atlanta 73-61 Phillies 71-63, Atlanta wins 68% -210
Atlanta 73-61 Phillies 72-62, Atlanta wins 59% -145
Atlanta 72-62 Phillies 72-62, Atlanta wins 50% EVEN

So it looks like a single game swing in a close race this late in the season is worth is worth 9% to your chances of winning.

Obviously, your handicapping opinion of the teams and their remaining schedule will modify these odds. I just checked one site that currently offers NL East odds of:

Braves -250 (71.4%)
Phillies +160 (38.4%)

Total probabilities add up to 109.8%.

IF you like the Phillies in this contest, AND there is a one game overnight swing in your favor (Phillies win & Braves lose), AND you can get a bet in before the line moves, you have made an (almost) no-vig bet.

Obviously lots of caveats apply to this analysis, since teams do NOT have a 50% chance of winning each of their games. For instance, I believe the DBacks have won about 80% of their games with Johnson or Schilling starting, and about 45% of their other games. Similarly, you expect Oakland to win a much higher fraction of their games with Tampa than with Seattle.

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Messages In This Thread

Schedule correlation effect -- James -- 28 Aug 01, 3:08 pm
Effect is a little bigger than I expected -- Colin Caster -- 28 Aug 01, 6:01 pm
Sim size -- James -- 28 Aug 01, 11:19 pm
Value of a game -- James -- 31 Aug 01, 11:11 am
Nice analysis -- thanks. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 31 Aug 01, 12:14 pm

 


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