[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

MLB Forum

My AL estimates as of today

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 29 Aug 01, 11:28 pm

In Response To: Looking ahead to AL playoffs (James)

I assumed a four-man rotation in a particular order that reset at the beginning of the ALCS. 

Team        p(winDiv)   p(winALCS)  Fair line

Oakland       .541         .560       +230

Seattle       .569         .484       +263

New York      .459         .525*      +315

Cleveland     .431         .417*      +456

*This assumes that New York gets home field in ALCS against Cleveland. If Cleveland gets home field, the above numbers change to .504 (+332) and .439 (+429), respectively.

All these odds assume, as did James, that these four teams make the AL playoffs. The chance of Boston, Minnesota, or Anaheim reaching the playoffs is not factored in, thereby underestimating Seattle's relative odds of winning the pennant.

CC

Password:

Messages In This Thread

Looking ahead to AL playoffs -- James -- 28 Aug 01, 11:39 pm
I give it an A+ -- fezzik -- 29 Aug 01, 1:13 am
Covering my backside -- James -- 29 Aug 01, 3:00 am
Yankee dynasty -- Revere14 -- 29 Aug 01, 1:55 am
My AL estimates as of today -- Colin Caster -- 29 Aug 01, 11:28 pm
Any NL thoughts? -- James -- 30 Aug 01, 3:04 am
Arizona in playoffs -- Harv -- 30 Aug 01, 12:43 pm
Arizona in Playoffs -- DaveG -- 30 Aug 01, 3:40 pm
re: Braves Offense -- David Matthews -- 31 Aug 01, 9:30 am
Braves Offensive Problems Solved -- urban33 -- 1 Sep 01, 11:25 am
It might be grasping for straws, but... -- Fibonacci -- 2 Sep 01, 5:45 pm
I hate the snakes -- Fezzik -- 2 Sep 01, 12:20 am
Arizona versus Houston -- Colin Caster -- 30 Aug 01, 10:11 pm
Major correction -- Colin Caster -- 1 Sep 01, 1:37 pm
how have you done in playoffs vs market? -- docriver -- 30 Aug 01, 10:00 am
I haven't -- Colin Caster -- 30 Aug 01, 10:17 pm

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

MLB Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press