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bonds

Posted By: docriver
Date: 16 Aug 01, 6:02 pm

In Response To: Bonds HR props. (James)

you can get Anyone (Bonds, Sosa, Gonzo, anyone) to break the record at +625 at Olympic.

I don't think the Poisson Distribution is valid here. Because there are issues involved that may negate the chances that he gets to hit. For example, the circumstances involving McGwires last couple weeks after he had already broken the record basically allowed any team that was out of the Playoff hunt to pitch to him and challenge him...especially since St. Louis was out of the playoff picture as well (otherwise the opposing manager would get heat from other managers for pitching to Mac). He only had 1 intentional walk in the last three weeks or so...and he had 5 HRs in the last 3 games against MOntreal.

This is different with Bonds. First, it is likely he'll be in a race with either Arizona or LA or both. They won't be happy to pitch to him. They won't be happy if COL or SD pitches to him (so they probably won't - so-called baseball ethics). Also, he'd be going after the record, whereas Mac was only extending it.

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Messages In This Thread

Bonds HR props. -- James -- 16 Aug 01, 5:46 pm
bonds -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 6:02 pm

 


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