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Bonds HR props.

Posted By: James
Date: 16 Aug 01, 5:46 pm

Bonds HRs o70 +350 u70 -450
Bonds HRs o65.5 -120 u65.5 EV

Current total: 53 HRs (after two today) with 41 games left.

Over the entire season, Bonds has averaged 0.47 HR/game played. This pace would put Bonds just over McGwire's tally at the end of the season.

He needs to average "only" 0.32 HR/game over the next 41 games to top the O/U mark of 65.5. Obviously the lines include some speculation of reversion to the mean, more walks/fewer quality pitches in pennant drive, and possibly some dislike of Bonds around the league keeping him from getting easy shots as he closes in on the record.

Can we assume a Poisson distribution for HRs over the remainder of the season?

If you assume the 65.5 O/U is correct, that would imply an average of 13 Bonds HRs over the rest of the season. Assuming 13 HRs as the mean, from a Poisson distribution we expect 18 HRs or more 90% of the time, plus another 5% pushes (on 17 for a tie with McGwire).

This would make a novig line for the McGwire prop o70 +850.

Alternately, if you assume that the novig line of Bonds o70 -400 is correct, then the expected number of HRs (from Poisson) is about 14.1, and the o/u line should be about Bonds o67 -110, or at least o66.5 -120. (Of course, this could partially be due to slow updating of numbers; I'm not sure if the lines quoted above were adjusted after todays Giants game.)

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Messages In This Thread

Bonds HR props. -- James -- 16 Aug 01, 5:46 pm
bonds -- docriver -- 16 Aug 01, 6:02 pm

 


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