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my estimation of fair odds

Posted By: docriver
Date: 15 Aug 01, 7:37 pm

In Response To: Pennant futures prices 8/15 (James)

here are my estimation of fair odds for the league

SEA 1.8
NY 2.2
Oak 6.9
Cle 9.3
BOS 11
MIN 33

note : for BOS, I'm not assuming Pedro comes back full health before the season ends, I'm giving it some prob that he doesn't...but I'm giving it 100% probability that if BOS does get into the playoffs, that Pedro is healthy.

ARI 4
ATL 4.5
CHC 6.3
HOU 6.7
SF 7.3
PHI 9
LA 12.6
STL 15.5

note : interestingly, I have ATL at 67% chance of playoffs, but ARI at 64% chance...yet I give ARI a higher chance of winning because 2 out of their 4 man rotation will be Schilling / Johnson

I am also estimiting that the AL will win the WS 59% of the time (62% for NYY, 64% for SEA, 56% for OAK, 50% for CLE, 50% BOS, 36% for MIN)

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Messages In This Thread

Pennant futures prices 8/15 -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 11:46 am
For your NL numbers, the player has an edge. -- Stanford Wong -- 15 Aug 01, 12:29 pm
Forgot Houston (nt) -- StevieY -- 15 Aug 01, 1:16 pm
Sorry. Left out Houston 9-1. (nt) -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 1:57 pm
That's still a player edge -- Stanford Wong -- 15 Aug 01, 3:51 pm
The bad bets -- fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 4:45 pm
Are faltering teams bad bets at any odds? -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 6:05 pm
Avoid faltering teams since -- fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 11:26 pm
Cleveland 10-1 -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 6:19 pm
my estimation of fair odds -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 7:37 pm

 


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