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Cleveland 10-1

Posted By: James
Date: 15 Aug 01, 6:19 pm

In Response To: Pennant futures prices 8/15 (James)

Anyone have thoughts on the Cleveland 10-1 number?

I don't like the Indians chances in a series against the Mariners, Yankees, or A's, but they must be at least 80% to get into the postseason as AL Central champions over the flailing Twins.

Assume hypothetically that a fair line on an Indians series against Seattle, NYY, or Oakland is +150, i.e a 40% chance to get through.

That handwaving estimate would give Cleveland a 80% x 40% x 40% = 13% chance of winning the AL.

10-1 is fair odds at roughly 9% odds. If you believe the 80% chance of winning the AL central, Cleveland 10-1 would be fair odds even if they are a +200 dog in both playoff series.

On a personal note, I already own Mariners and Oakland futures (and Twins-- oh well), so if this is +EV or even EV=0 it would fit nicely as a variance reducer, giving me a decent shot at owning all the AL postseason teams except the Yankees.

Anyone more knowledgable than I (i.e anyone here) care to correct/comment on the above?

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Messages In This Thread

Pennant futures prices 8/15 -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 11:46 am
For your NL numbers, the player has an edge. -- Stanford Wong -- 15 Aug 01, 12:29 pm
Forgot Houston (nt) -- StevieY -- 15 Aug 01, 1:16 pm
Sorry. Left out Houston 9-1. (nt) -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 1:57 pm
That's still a player edge -- Stanford Wong -- 15 Aug 01, 3:51 pm
The bad bets -- fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 4:45 pm
Are faltering teams bad bets at any odds? -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 6:05 pm
Avoid faltering teams since -- fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 11:26 pm
Cleveland 10-1 -- James -- 15 Aug 01, 6:19 pm
my estimation of fair odds -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 7:37 pm

 


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