[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

MLB Forum

Variance?

Posted By: James
Date: 10 Aug 01, 3:41 pm

In Response To: AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study (Colin Caster)

How huge is a one-game differential right now? And how big is the variance on your results?

When you ran your simulation without the power-rating adjustments, you had Cleveland 556, Twins 465. That was Wed night, when Cleveland was 1 game up on the Twins.

Boston 600, Oakland 410. On Wed. night, Boston was only 0.5 game up on the A's. (Now the situation is reversed.) Were you using standings through Tuesday night instead? When Boston was up by 1.5? But then Cleveland was even with the Twins. Is there a std. dev. of perhaps 50 points on these results? More?

I don't know how to calculate that for a system like this, but running (at least) two identical sims might give an idea of the variation involved.

Last time I went shopping I found about -1.5% vig on NL futures. A model as fully developed as SY is working on could be great for spotting where the true value lies.

Password:

Messages In This Thread

AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 10:58 pm
NL Monte Carlo -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 11:36 pm
Adjustment -- Editor -- 9 Aug 01, 7:43 am
Definitely -- Colin Caster -- 10 Aug 01, 8:58 pm
Refinements -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:08 pm
Monte Carlo -- StevieY -- 10 Aug 01, 3:17 pm
Agreed. -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:29 pm
Negative correlation between results -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:26 pm
Variance? -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:41 pm
Updated vig. -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
Good sim ideas -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:34 pm
Futures surveys -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:48 am

 


Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Picks Post?
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

MLB Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press