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Refinements

Posted By: James
Date: 10 Aug 01, 3:08 pm

In Response To: NL Monte Carlo (Colin Caster)

To do this right, and adjust for strength of schedule, ideally by actually matching up all the teams for the rest of the games on the schedule and "playing" a "real" game (e.g. NYY might win 50% vs. Seattle, 80% vs D-Rays), might take until the season is over.

One simple refinement, though, is to put in the actual rules for playoff qualifying, rather than selecting the four best records. I.e. run your MonteCarlo sim, then select for the playoffs the three best division teams and the next best overall record. No sims with Zona, Dodgers, and SF all making the playoffs. This sounds like a 10-minute fix, and it would be interesting to see how much (if any) the results are changed.

The actual matchups remaining should have a large effect on the playoff qualifying, although it may turn out that assuming all games independent is a "good enough" approximation.

But when Houston has 10 of their last 48 games against the Cubs, there is a strong anti-correlation between their results. If nothing else, I can guarantee they won't both go 44-4 or better... By late September, the anti-correlation effect will be huge in the NL west as LA plays 13 of their last 16 against SF and Arizona.

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Messages In This Thread

AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 10:58 pm
NL Monte Carlo -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 11:36 pm
Adjustment -- Editor -- 9 Aug 01, 7:43 am
Definitely -- Colin Caster -- 10 Aug 01, 8:58 pm
Refinements -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:08 pm
Monte Carlo -- StevieY -- 10 Aug 01, 3:17 pm
Agreed. -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:29 pm
Negative correlation between results -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:26 pm
Variance? -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:41 pm
Updated vig. -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
Good sim ideas -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:34 pm
Futures surveys -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:48 am

 


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