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Grand Slam prop

Posted By: James
Date: 16 Oct 01, 6:22 pm

No Grand slam in playoffs: EV

There are at most 20 games remaining in the postseason.

Assuming all series go 7 games, this would be a fair line if the prob of a slam in any one game is 3.4%.

Prob of a slam can go up if you assume some series will finish in fewer games.

I'm looking for stats for guidance right now, but haven't found anything promising yet. If you do come up with an overall average prob of a GS in a baseball game, it should probably be adjusted down for the better quality of pitching in the playoffs. There _might_ be an extra upward factor from excessive managing in postseason games if managers are more likely (than in the regular season) to load the bases with a runner on third trying for the game-saving double play and/or force at home.

So far this postseason there have been 34 HRs in 19 games, no slams.

Any thoughts?

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Messages In This Thread

Grand Slam prop -- James -- 16 Oct 01, 6:22 pm
Factors -- Harv -- 16 Oct 01, 9:26 pm
Where did you find this? (nt) -- duncan wallace -- 17 Oct 01, 9:22 am
Long gone. -200 now. -- James -- 17 Oct 01, 11:37 am
James, James, James -- urban33 -- 17 Oct 01, 12:12 pm
Hear, hear! (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 17 Oct 01, 9:03 pm

 


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