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NL Monte Carlo

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 8 Aug 01, 11:36 pm

In Response To: AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study (Colin Caster)

Same as AL post above. Here are the frequencies of "playoff appearances for the first 1000 "season" sim, in which p of .5 is assumed for each remaining game: 

Chicago        789

Los Angeles    661

Atlanta        648

Houston        504

Arizona        486

San Francisco  468

Philadelphia   352

St. Louis       48

Florida         34

San Diego        6

New York         3

And here are the simulated frequencies using a win probability derived from my own power ratings: 

Atlanta        910

Arizona        684

Chicago        671

Houston        651

Los Angeles    431

San Francisco  341

Philadelphia   228

St. Louis       69

Florida         11

San Diego        1

Obviously, the power ratings are a good bit more influential in the NL than in the AL, where there is already a lot of separation in the standings.

The caveat I made in the AL simulation about the team with the 4th best record not necessarily making the playoffs applies even more in the NL.

Also, I was wrong in the AL post about there being no three-way ties for 4th best record. I do not know whether there were any such ties, as all teams in such ties were coded as not having made the playoffs.

Thoughts?

CC

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Messages In This Thread

AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 10:58 pm
NL Monte Carlo -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 11:36 pm
Adjustment -- Editor -- 9 Aug 01, 7:43 am
Definitely -- Colin Caster -- 10 Aug 01, 8:58 pm
Refinements -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:08 pm
Monte Carlo -- StevieY -- 10 Aug 01, 3:17 pm
Agreed. -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:29 pm
Negative correlation between results -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:26 pm
Variance? -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:41 pm
Updated vig. -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
Good sim ideas -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:34 pm
Futures surveys -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:48 am

 


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