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AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 8 Aug 01, 10:58 pm

I have been fooling with a new data simulation program, and tonight, while I was watching my picks go 0-3, I gave it a test drive.

I assumed that each AL team had a probability of .5 of winning each remaining game. From this assumption, and the number of games remaining, I was able to calculate population variability, and I ran a sample of 1000 "seasons." Below are the frequencies (in descending order) with which each team possessed the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best record in the AL at season's end (which corresponds roughly to making the playoffs). 

Seattle    1000

New York    858

Boston      600

Cleveland   556

Minnesota   465

Oakland     410

California   76

Chicago      27

Incidentally, if a team was tied for the fourth best record, I gave it credit for .5 of a playoff showing. No three-way ties occurred in my simulation.

Then I ran the same 1000 "season" simulation using, instead of a .5 probability of winning each remaining game, a probability derived from my current team power ratings. For example, New York's was .568; Tampa Bay's was .345. The following are the frequencies I obtained with this adjustment: 

Seattle   1000

New York   939

Boston     856

Cleveland  754

Oakland    332

Minnesota  114

California   8

Chicago      4

The rank order is the same as in the first simulation, except that Oakland jumps over Minnesota. I (still) believe the Twins are a long shot to make the playoffs.

Obviously, there are some places where I need to tighten up the simulation. For example, it is possible for the team with the 4th best record not to make the playoffs. Also, I did not adjust for remaining schedule strength.

Still, interesting, no?

If I can keep my eyes open, I'll run the NL tonight (before the standings change again).

CC

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Messages In This Thread

AL regular season records: Monte Carlo study -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 10:58 pm
NL Monte Carlo -- Colin Caster -- 8 Aug 01, 11:36 pm
Adjustment -- Editor -- 9 Aug 01, 7:43 am
Definitely -- Colin Caster -- 10 Aug 01, 8:58 pm
Refinements -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:08 pm
Monte Carlo -- StevieY -- 10 Aug 01, 3:17 pm
Agreed. -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:29 pm
Negative correlation between results -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:26 pm
Variance? -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 3:41 pm
Updated vig. -- James -- 10 Aug 01, 4:27 pm
Good sim ideas -- Colin Caster -- 12 Aug 01, 10:34 pm
Futures surveys -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:48 am

 


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