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Poisson

Posted By: James
Date: 10 Oct 01, 10:19 pm

In Response To: more info pls (baba looey)

For more details on the math, read SW's book, the Poisson props chapter.

What I did:

Mulder 4.5 K/game (153 Ks, 34 games)
Clemens 6.5 K/game (213 Ks, 33 games) stats from ESPN.com

If you have Excel on your computer, click on the "Poisson" link at the bottom left of this page. At the top right of the spreadsheet is the calculation for comparing two variables (like Ks). Enter 4.5 and 6.5 as the two expected averages. The spreadsheet will calculate the three probabilites for Mulder>Clemens, Clemens>Mulder, or tie (assuming that Poisson is a reasonable distribution). The calculation gives Clemens winning probability as 0.674. If you adjust the expected averages based on additional handicapping, you can get revised probabilities that match your estimates.

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Messages In This Thread

Prop? Strikeouts? -- Sooner -- 10 Oct 01, 3:34 pm
Back up the truck -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 3:48 pm
I played -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 4:09 pm
great bet. WSEX had -1.5. where did you find it? (nt) -- docriver -- 10 Oct 01, 6:16 pm
Intertops had -0.5 -130 (nt) -- Razor -- 10 Oct 01, 8:01 pm
That's where I played. -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 10:07 pm
more info pls -- baba looey -- 10 Oct 01, 7:52 pm
Poisson -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 10:19 pm
Apparently -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 10:06 pm
Doesn't matter -- StevieY -- 11 Oct 01, 10:27 am
Wild Card/Worst Div Winners -- urban33 -- 11 Oct 01, 10:38 am

 


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