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A little more info

Posted By: Zoso
Date: 8 Aug 01, 9:17 am

In Response To: Bases, parlaying totals to sides (Fezzik)

I was curious to see whether there was a subset within the data that could have worked mechanically over the four years. Here is the data from the four segments:

Road dogs (over) 1367-1725 (+113.5 units) +3.7% ROI
Road favs (over) 824-569 (+48.3 units) +3.5% ROI

Home dogs (under) 613-684 (+90.4 units) +7.0% ROI
Home favs (under) 1951-1372 (+71.5 units) +2.2% ROI

From 1996-1999, only the home dogs would have overcome the 4.55% vig from the totals.

Overall, if the average line on your totals is -110, by parlaying the corresonding side with your total, you have reduced the vig from 4.55% to about 1.5% (a line of about -103) and only need to hit about 50.7% of your totals instead of 52.4% to make a profit.

BTW:
The average score when the away team wins is 10.04
The average score when the home team wins is 9.63
Difference of 0.41 runs

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Messages In This Thread

Bases, parlaying totals to sides -- Fezzik -- 5 Aug 01, 12:16 am
Some data -- Zoso -- 6 Aug 01, 11:38 am
Nice, thanks. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 6 Aug 01, 2:19 pm
A little more info -- Zoso -- 8 Aug 01, 9:17 am
Wouldn't the AL totals be skewed.... -- Allan -- 10 Aug 01, 11:32 pm

 


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