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I played

Posted By: James
Date: 10 Oct 01, 4:09 pm

In Response To: Back up the truck (James)

Clemens -.5 -130. Line moved from -125 before I got my bet in.

From ESPN.com:

Clemens 2001: 8.7 k/9 innings, 6.5 K/game
Mulder 2001: 6.0 k/9 innings, 4.5 K/game

If I treat this as a Poisson prop, Clemens wins 67%, or a fair line of about Clemens -0.5 -200.

Perhaps discount this some for the difference in average talent of teams played (AL West tougher than AL East), and the talent of playoff teams compared to the average teams played during season (potentially less K's on both sides?) but it still seems a pretty good bet.

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Messages In This Thread

Prop? Strikeouts? -- Sooner -- 10 Oct 01, 3:34 pm
Back up the truck -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 3:48 pm
I played -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 4:09 pm
great bet. WSEX had -1.5. where did you find it? (nt) -- docriver -- 10 Oct 01, 6:16 pm
Intertops had -0.5 -130 (nt) -- Razor -- 10 Oct 01, 8:01 pm
That's where I played. -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 10:07 pm
more info pls -- baba looey -- 10 Oct 01, 7:52 pm
Poisson -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 10:19 pm
Apparently -- James -- 10 Oct 01, 10:06 pm
Doesn't matter -- StevieY -- 11 Oct 01, 10:27 am
Wild Card/Worst Div Winners -- urban33 -- 11 Oct 01, 10:38 am

 


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