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Game 1 & Series

Posted By: docriver
Date: 9 Oct 01, 1:20 am

In Response To: You don't think we'll see Oswalt in Game 4? (Colin Caster)

I like betting the Braves in Game 1 & the Series. I think the Series line is fair if the Game 1 line is fair, but since I believe the Game 1 line is off, therefore I believe the Series line is off. All the reports say that Oswalt will pitch Game 4, and I have factored that into my series odds....and I think its clear the line has that factored in.

Here are the pitching matchups that I think are probable

Maddux at Miller (on 3 days)
Glavine at Mlicki (Mlicki is a medicore pitcher at best, but with better hitters and home field, I peg this game at 50/50)
Reynolds at Burkett (I peg this game at 52/48 to Burkett, mainly because of home field)
Oswalt at Marquis (you gotta factor in some doubt as to Oz's status, and even if he does start, some prob he goes out early due to a twinge in his groin again...I peg this at 54% to HOU)
Maddux at Miller (Miller back on 4 days, the line will likely stay the same, +115/-135, which is what I believe is correct given 4 days rest for Miller)

given those numbers, I get HOU at 54% -118. However, I think Game 1 should be ATL favored 55/45 which makes the series line 50.5 HOU. ATL +110 is (or at least, it was) available

let me know where your numbers are different.

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Messages In This Thread

Wade Miller on 3 days rest -- docriver -- 8 Oct 01, 4:26 pm
You don't think we'll see Oswalt in Game 4? -- Colin Caster -- 8 Oct 01, 9:09 pm
Game 1 & Series -- docriver -- 9 Oct 01, 1:20 am
Oswalt -- Harv -- 9 Oct 01, 7:26 pm
Oz one game, Mlicki another, order doesn't matter that much. -- docriver -- 10 Oct 01, 4:49 am
I think Maddux will go in Game 4 (if needed) -- Colin Caster -- 9 Oct 01, 8:12 pm
Maddux 3 days vs Marquis on multiple days? -- docriver -- 10 Oct 01, 4:44 am
Maddux' Pitch Count -- urban33 -- 10 Oct 01, 7:45 am
complete game -- docriver -- 10 Oct 01, 9:01 am
Pitch count -- StevieY -- 10 Oct 01, 11:18 am
thanks for the insight (nt) -- docriver -- 10 Oct 01, 2:20 pm

 


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