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Baseball teasers

Posted By: James
Date: 28 Sep 01, 4:58 pm

A book I have an account at just started offering teasers on baseball totals.

Baseball totals are teased by 2 runs.

2-game at 6-5
3-game at 3-2
4-game at 2-1

breakeven win probabilities (per game) are 67.4%, 73.7%, and 76.0%, so we can safely ignore all but the 2-game teasers.

The odds attached to the total line don't affect the teaser odds.

win-tie pushes, lose-tie loses (ouch) so this should probably be used only on 0.5 lines.

They can also be combined with football teasers, but a 6-pt football tease combined with a 2-run baseball total tease pays at -110, so this is presumably a bad idea.

With no knowledge whatsoever, I would assume that blindly teasing games would be a loser. Does anyone have stats showing distribution of baseball totals that would show if there is a "window of opportunity" here similar to the key number teasers in football? I assume that the only reasonable candidates are 7.5 totals (or 7 totals except for the ugly tie rules), since the run distribution should be more concentrated.

At a guess, I would think that possibly teasing low totals down (i.e. over 7.5 down to over 5.5) would be the most likely candidate. Since they ignore odds, focusing on shaded lines like 7.5o would be better.

To be breakeven, if over 7.5 was a "perfect" total line covering 50%, you would need to pick up at least 17% with the 7 and the 6. If the line was initially over 7.5 -120, (again assuming a "perfect" line) then the novig line of over 7.5 -110 would imply that we pick up a bit of that (2.4%) because the over was slightly more likely to start with.

So, for SY or anyone else with the data to answer this, do totals of 7 and 6 combine for at least 15-20% probability in low-total games?

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Messages In This Thread

Baseball teasers -- James -- 28 Sep 01, 4:58 pm
Any 0.5 -- Harv -- 28 Sep 01, 5:26 pm
BB Teasers -- Don Peszynski -- 28 Sep 01, 7:12 pm
& in 2001: -- Colin Caster -- 28 Sep 01, 8:11 pm
Colin, how about 8.5 lined games? Thanks, (nt) -- Math Boy -- 29 Sep 01, 8:48 am
8.5 -- Colin Caster -- 29 Sep 01, 5:49 pm

 


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