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Estimated lines or estimated probabilities?

Posted By: James
Date: 26 Sep 01, 3:29 am

In Response To: playoff probabilities (docriver)

Are these your estimates of a novig line, or your estimate of what the market line will be?

If you are estimating the "true" novig line then I think you should make the Yankees and Oakland at least even money, possibly even an edge to Oakland. Seattle/Cleveland may be about right.

I don't even want to estimate lines in the NL right now. Cards and Astros are in, but nobody in the West/East seems ready to put this away. I'm probably just annoyed that I thought I had fully hedged my NL futures portfolio and now see the Mets trying very hard to screw me up.

If you are esimating the novig market line, I think the Seattle and New York will be favored even more strongly.

One possible way to estimate the AL matchup market lines is to shop to create market estimates of the probability of each team winning the pennant, then take P1/(P1+P2) as the market probability that team #1 will defeat team #2 in the first playoff round. E.g. if you estimate the market line on the Yankees is +200 and A's is +350, then you would take the market prob of Yankees winning a NYY/Oak series as

(1/3) /(1/3 + 1/4.5) = 3/5 or a novig line of -150

Obviously this approach is of questionable utility in the NL, where it is unclear which teams will make it into the playoffs, and the market pennant lines are combining playoff series outcomes with prob of making the playoffs in the first place. You could potentially incorporate market estimates of making the playoffs from current divisional odds, but adding too many layers into this calculation gets a bit dicey since it is not clear (to me) that the market is so sophisticated mathematically that lines on sequential events are in line with Bayesian calculations.

However, since I have seen the Astros lined at +200 to win the pennant, or prob=1/3, I imagine the market line on an individual playoff matchup will not be as even as your post suggests.

Have you looked at season series prices between the relevant teams (I haven't)? This might be another starting point, although the pitching matchups will be different, and the stronger team should be favored by a greater margin in a 5-game playoff vs a 3-game season series.

BTW, you left the Mets off of your list (as I left them out of my futures). Braves and Phillies are trying really hard to extend a helping hand to the city of New York. Time is running out, but they could still both manage to lose the NL East.

Mets have 3 games with Atlanta, and 8 games with Montreal/Pittsburgh.
Braves play 3 with Mets, 5 more with Florida, 3 with Phillies.
Phillies play 3 with Braves, 3 with Florida, 5 with Reds.

With the Braves and Phillies play of late, should the Mets be favored to win the division?

I think that question warrants a :) but I'm not totally sure.

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Messages In This Thread

playoff probabilities -- docriver -- 25 Sep 01, 4:32 pm
Estimated lines or estimated probabilities? -- James -- 26 Sep 01, 3:29 am
estimating market novig line -- docriver -- 26 Sep 01, 4:56 am
Mets -- StevieY -- 26 Sep 01, 5:12 pm

 


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