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Some data

Posted By: Zoso
Date: 6 Aug 01, 11:38 am

In Response To: Bases, parlaying totals to sides (Fezzik)

Being very skeptical, and quite frankly, not expecting this to bear any fruit, I checked my database and was surprised at the results. Unfortunately, I have not updated my data since the end of 1999, so it would be interesting to see if the trend has continued.

First, I misread your post and did it backwards. I assumed you liked a side, and then played the corresponding total. The results were just about what you would expect:

When the home team wins, the unders won at a 52.7% clip (2565-2294)
When the away team wins, the overs won 51.6% of the time (2192-2056)
No advantage there.

I then checked the data based on your hypothesis. I was very surprised at the results:

On the occasions that the unders won, the home team returned +59.3 units (2564-2056), and added about 1.2% to your ev.
The away teams fared even better, winning +161.9 units (2194-2294), adding 3.6% to your ev on the overs.

I did omit the pushes, which should subtract some of this advantage, since you will have a small disadvantage (the vig) on these since you are not capping the sides.

My data (1996-1999) suggests that you have a valid system here.

It would be interesting to see whether anyone can corroborate my data and include 2000-2001.

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Messages In This Thread

Bases, parlaying totals to sides -- Fezzik -- 5 Aug 01, 12:16 am
Some data -- Zoso -- 6 Aug 01, 11:38 am
Nice, thanks. (nt) -- Colin Caster -- 6 Aug 01, 2:19 pm
A little more info -- Zoso -- 8 Aug 01, 9:17 am
Wouldn't the AL totals be skewed.... -- Allan -- 10 Aug 01, 11:32 pm

 


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