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CHC>SF LA>SF

Posted By: docriver
Date: 6 Sep 01, 12:53 am

CHC is 77-62 with 23 games to go
SF is 77-63 with 22 games to go

CHC plays : HOU 7, ATL 3, CIN 7, PIT 6
SF plays : HOU 6, ARI 1, LA 6, COL 3, SD 6

I ran the following simulation : assume .55 of win against non contenders....and .50 against contenders.

CHC plays 10 games against contenders, 13 against none.
SF plays 13 games against contenders, 9 against noncontenders.

just simulating these numbers along with the rest of the other teams, I get the following probability of getting into the playoffs, be it winning the division or WC :

CHC 48.4%
SF 32.8%

I did the same simualtions for the teams to win the west, and I got the following :

ARI 69.7%
SF 13.2%
LA 17.1%

LA is 76-63, half a game behind the Giants.
They play : STL 3, SF 6, ARI 7, SD 6, COL 1
16 against contenders 7 against noncontenders

notice they play 3 more contenders than SF...but they do get to play Arizona 7 more times....and it sounds like that's the reason my simulations would pick up that LA has a higher chance of winning the division.

Still, this seems a bit strong to me.
Please, let's assume the assumptions of .55 against noncontenders and .5 against contenders without any opinions about how good the different teams are - any thoughts on the numbers?

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