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Even truer!

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 4 Sep 01, 9:00 pm

In Response To: true (docriver)

"but that its not that easy to make money betting sports"

Hard to disagree with you there. But sometimes it's like picking cherries. For example, if WSEX had Atlanta -200 last night they were giving you a huge edge. Last night Atlanta had 25 games remaining; the Phillies 24. If you assume that Atlanta and Philly are of equal quality (a very conservative assumption, IMO) and have a 50-50 chance of winning each remaining game, then Atlanta will average 12.5 additional wins and Philly will average 12. The standard deviations oassociated with these average wins are 2.5 and 2.45, respectively. If you run a simulation on seasons with these parameters, you will find that Atlanta wins the division about 73.5% of the time, which corresponds to an edge of +10.3% over a money line of -200. That's one whopping big edge, right, even with extremely conservative assumptions.

Sometimes you need to "tread carefully," and sometimes you need to fall all over yourself to get the bets down.

CC

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Messages In This Thread

Fair divisional odds - NL -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
division leaders cheap everywhere -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:41 pm
I agree, I think. -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:39 pm
yes, i think so -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 6:44 pm
Bias, AKA handicapping -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 7:18 pm
true -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 8:04 pm
Even truer! -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 9:00 pm
yes! -- docriver -- 5 Sep 01, 5:40 am
5%/month investment -- James -- 4 Sep 01, 11:31 am
Twinkies -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:58 pm

 


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