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true

Posted By: docriver
Date: 4 Sep 01, 8:04 pm

In Response To: Bias, AKA handicapping (Colin Caster)

Yes, I agree it is possible that your numbers may all be better than the published lines. But your numbers have a healthy margin of error. You listed ATL as -726 before tonights game. WSEX had ATL at -200...and they just moved the line to -300 (last I checked during the ATL game in the 9th when they were up 3-2). This implies you have a 12.8% edge

HOU can be found (again before tonights games) at 1-3, so you had a 9% edge.

so you are getting 12.8%, 9% and 15% edge respectively. when these numbers get that big, and they are all on the same side...it just makes me suspicious. I think I've made my point clear....not that I don't believe you...but that its not that easy to make money betting sports, so when one finds a situation that may seem too good to be true, one needs to tread carefully.

Frankly, I'd be thrilled if you were right on the Astros and Braves!

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Messages In This Thread

Fair divisional odds - NL -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
division leaders cheap everywhere -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:41 pm
I agree, I think. -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:39 pm
yes, i think so -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 6:44 pm
Bias, AKA handicapping -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 7:18 pm
true -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 8:04 pm
Even truer! -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 9:00 pm
yes! -- docriver -- 5 Sep 01, 5:40 am
5%/month investment -- James -- 4 Sep 01, 11:31 am
Twinkies -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:58 pm

 


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