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Bias, AKA handicapping

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 4 Sep 01, 7:18 pm

In Response To: yes, i think so (docriver)

I would've been a lot happier if you had found 1 non division winner as a good bet. That would mean less chance that your system has a bias towards the division leaders (for whatever reason it does, I don't know). does that make sense?

I see what you mean. It is only three teams, though. Also, the fact that division lines get updated all at once builds in a certain amount of correlation, wouldn't you agree? LVSC could issue an update tonight and suddenly I have no value on any teams.

FWIW, I really don't think my system is biased in favor of the favorites. Typically my "bias" (evidenced by regular disparity from the book's line) is toward the conservative side, which in futures should manifest in liking the dogs. I think it more likely that I am biased in favor of certain teams that happen to be on top at the moment. (Other teams I have liked pretty consistently but who haven't been performing well include Boston, which I had in every game against the Yankees this past weekend, and Colorado.)

But note that the "bias" (even systematic bias) evidenced by disparity from the published line can also exist because the handicapper, rather than the sportsbook, has it right.

CC

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Messages In This Thread

Fair divisional odds - NL -- Colin Caster -- 3 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
division leaders cheap everywhere -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:41 pm
I agree, I think. -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:39 pm
yes, i think so -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 6:44 pm
Bias, AKA handicapping -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 7:18 pm
true -- docriver -- 4 Sep 01, 8:04 pm
Even truer! -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 9:00 pm
yes! -- docriver -- 5 Sep 01, 5:40 am
5%/month investment -- James -- 4 Sep 01, 11:31 am
Twinkies -- Colin Caster -- 4 Sep 01, 6:58 pm

 


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