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Quite misguided analysis

Posted By: Don Schlesinger
Date: 23 Aug 01, 8:53 pm

In Response To: Corrections & Honest Touts (Bob Fisher)

"I will try to answer 2 of John Mays concerns. The first is Will the market adjust? You mentioned that the prior record was obtained by "private clients" and that he is now going public. This private nature of the service could explain why the market was not seriously affected. But with going public now, anybody can subscribe to the service including someone from a place like Las Vegas Sports Consultants."

Dan knows them all; they're his friends! Wouldn't surprise me if he helped them make the line, from time to time. There are a million handicappers selling picks. For every game Dan gives out, there are 50 services giving out the other side. All that matters is where the money shows up. If Jim Feist's followers bet 100 times what Dan's followers do, the line goes against Feist, even if he's an idiot. The line will NOT move simply because Dan releases a pick.

"If they believe he is good the line will adjust because if it doesn't, Gorden's clients will win money from LVSC clients while producing nothing in return. There will be more action on Gordon's picks so to balance the books of LVSC clients, the LVSC line must
move against the Gordon pick"

No, not true at all. Much too simplistic an analysis. Dan's had clients for years and years. Just how many more do you think he's going to get on RGE?

"In Gorden's case I believe he wants $1,250 for the season which he claims is about 80-100 bets."

Wrong again. He wants $600 for FB, $800 for BB, or $1250 for both combined. He makes three times as many NBA picks as NFL picks, and wins at the identical 56-57% rate!! That's close to 400 games a year, at 57%. So, maybe you go 228 and 172, for 38.8 games to the good. And, if you're betting what Wong bet last year, ($2,000 per game), you win close to $80,000 -- flat betting. Do some moderate form of Kelly, you're way over 100 grand. And you take off July and August! ;-)

"The important point is that the tout is willing to put his OWN
MONEY at risk on his own picks."

Last time I looked, it was the only job Dan had had for 20 years.

Don

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Messages In This Thread

a question -- Arthur -- 21 Aug 01, 5:11 pm
answers -- Stanford Wong -- 21 Aug 01, 7:05 pm
Virtually all attainable -- Don Schlesinger -- 21 Aug 01, 7:36 pm
More data is required -- John May -- 22 Aug 01, 11:03 am
More data will come -- Stanford Wong -- 22 Aug 01, 1:39 pm
Highly doubtful -- Don Schlesinger -- 22 Aug 01, 7:02 pm
Don, you are one lovable smartass! (nt) -- Compador -- 22 Aug 01, 8:01 pm
Chunk Bet -- Fezzik -- 22 Aug 01, 10:40 pm
Wong +500 looks resonable -- Math Boy -- 23 Aug 01, 8:22 am
I'm impressed -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 9:33 am
not that great an estimate -- Math Boy -- 23 Aug 01, 3:47 pm
Spoilsport -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 4:09 pm
DonS is running the wrong way! -- fezzik's chunk bet -- 23 Aug 01, 11:15 pm
Eye of the beholder -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 8:36 am
you're not as smart as i thought you were -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 10:06 am
Strange thought processes -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 5:13 pm
you believe because you know him...but what about us? -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 5:28 pm
Honest answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 6:36 pm
Four years -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 5:30 pm
219/391 -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 6:40 pm
a little math question -- docriver -- 24 Aug 01, 6:43 pm
Math question -- Colin Caster -- 24 Aug 01, 8:06 pm
Suggestion: List those 391 picks -- Stanford Wong -- 24 Aug 01, 8:34 pm
Just asking -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 9:07 pm
Don, isn't this two-faced? -- Fezzik -- 25 Aug 01, 12:20 am
No new picks with old prices, please -- Stanford Wong -- 25 Aug 01, 7:14 am
Always boils down to the same thing -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 8:54 am
Classic DonS Deflection Post -- Fezzik -- 24 Aug 01, 8:56 pm
Too serious -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 8:45 am
I think you touched some nerves Don -- DowntownMan -- 25 Aug 01, 1:26 pm
I don't expect an answer . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Aug 01, 5:56 pm
Good post! -- Fezzik -- 25 Aug 01, 9:01 pm
Question re: " correction to the Gordon sample". -- samo666 -- 23 Aug 01, 2:43 am
You need to look at the total number of touts tested -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 3:07 am
Asinine analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 9:36 am
Er...why? -- John May -- 23 Aug 01, 1:13 pm
Guess you can't read -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 4:34 pm
Corrections & Honest Touts -- Bob Fisher -- 23 Aug 01, 5:29 pm
Quite misguided analysis -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:53 pm
Baccarat vs touting -- John May -- 24 Aug 01, 12:24 pm
I thank God every day -- Don Schlesinger -- 24 Aug 01, 5:28 pm
What makes Stanford Wong an authority on football wagering? -- Colin Caster -- 21 Aug 01, 11:10 pm
Wong has established -- John May -- 22 Aug 01, 4:39 am

 

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