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hedging futures

Posted By: rainmandon
Date: 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm

In Response To: I understand the bet... (StevieY)

Well, let's look at it on an EV basis. Take the extreme case you mentioned of the Lions having a 5% chance of winning the game and you've got them at 40-1 in the futures book, your EV is $41,000/20, or $2050.

But by doing the hedge on Miami at -170, your EV is over $15,000--with no risk.

While you still have a positive EV going unhedged, you have a much higher EV using the hedge on Miami.

Another way of phrasing the question is, "Would you risk $15,000 to win $26,000 on something that only has a 5% chance of happening?"

No way! Ten per cent? Still no way. The break-even point is at
15/(15+26) or 37%. So if you felt that Detroit had a 37% or better chance of winning the game, then maybe you shouldn't hedge. Then it would depend on your tolerance for risk.

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Messages In This Thread

How to handle the "huge exposure game" -- Fezzik -- 12 Aug 01, 11:53 pm
So, will you be hedging against the Mariners in October? -- James -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 am
Difference between A's and Eagles -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 11:35 am
that's not a hedge -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 12:10 pm
Yes and no -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 12:33 pm
risk -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:04 pm
Hedging -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 1:38 pm
Example please? -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 1:56 pm
Example -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 5:36 pm
because you have 40x in equity now -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:01 pm
above title should read : 18x, not 40x (nt) -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:08 pm
You aren't wagering 18,000+ -- StevieY -- 13 Aug 01, 6:11 pm
Agree to disagree -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 6:20 pm
You are both right, even disagreeing -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:32 am
Size your bets according the payoff, not the bet size. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 6:39 pm
he really has found some arbitrage -- Math Boy -- 13 Aug 01, 8:21 pm
You can always overbet if the marginal EV from betting more is less than th -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:41 pm
Practical issues -- James -- 14 Aug 01, 11:27 am
i'm the minority -- docriver -- 13 Aug 01, 8:38 pm
hedging futures bets -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 7:51 pm
I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 21 Aug 01, 7:58 pm
hedging futures -- rainmandon -- 21 Aug 01, 9:22 pm
I understand the bet... -- StevieY -- 22 Aug 01, 6:40 pm
Sea hedge -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:34 am
Oops.......I showed my Sea Bias -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 1:36 am
I'm in the same boat. I won't hedge. -- Stanford Wong -- 13 Aug 01, 8:57 am
Risk-averse betting? -- John May -- 13 Aug 01, 9:14 am
Agree -- Don Schlesinger -- 14 Aug 01, 1:11 pm
1 investment question -- Fezzik -- 15 Aug 01, 2:29 am
Attempt at some answers -- Don Schlesinger -- 15 Aug 01, 8:13 am
how much does money mean to you? -- docriver -- 15 Aug 01, 8:39 am
In-the-money options -- Jaeger -- 23 Aug 01, 6:44 pm
No -- Don Schlesinger -- 23 Aug 01, 8:55 pm
Risk-averse betting? -- lepto -- 14 Aug 01, 1:33 pm
Your bet suffered turf toe -- McNabb#1 -- 14 Aug 01, 4:24 am

 

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