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I like your example

Posted By: Bad Cutter
Date: 26 Sep 01, 8:13 am

In Response To: I have a different take on this thought provoking question: (samo666)

The o/u 41 in the Car/Atl game, I would agree and say that I wouldn't have bet on it. I think you did indeed miss the good bet at 42. 41 points is one of those teeter-totter scores where a half point means more in EV than the difference between say 43 and 43.5. I find the most teetering to be 32,37,41,44 in Pro. A half point on any side of these numbers I would think is more meaningful than a half a point for other totals. Same situation applied to the total in the monday night game. Had I not found that extra half a point I would not have bet the under even though I had reason to believe that conditions would favor lower scores than oddsmakers predicted. Near 5:30 monday evening (LV time) station casinos boosted it from 41 to 41.5. At about the same time as some of the college lines changed drastically. One of them was Rutgers from 16 to 17 and now a whopping 17 1/2.

Sorry to get carried away with your example but it is at the essence of what the hypothesis of trying to figure if one is a worthwhile sports bettor or not. Far more meaningful than bad beats and beat badly's. I believe I made many mistakes this week that I hope not to make in the future. I did too much shopping and not enough handicapping because in retrospect (monday morning quarterbacking) all the info was there for me and if I would have read more thoroughly the essence of I would have no reason to pick some of the teams I picked.

I myself find it easier to analyze totals, moneylines, and teasers over straight out picks. I found myself making a good case for both the vikings and the bears in the same damn game. I find that shopping for totals is more forgiving than shopping for picks because if you use shopping alone for picks you always end up on the side that the smart money didn't want. Totals are more forgiving because no matter how many points somebody thinks a team will score there are definite totals that swing from a lay off to a bet with the give or take of half a point. And in the haste of shopping I really think one may neglect that actual handicapping involved. I know I was guilty of that last week. By the time I reached the book I had forgotten many angles and was line shopping and finding imbalances in tthe money lines.

Sorry to go off on the tangent but picking is just plain hard and which particular method should actually be used to judge your apparent success or failure is not cut and dry.

Cutter

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Messages In This Thread

bad beats versus getting beaten badly -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 11:23 am
Obvious downfall -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 1:44 pm
not so obvious -- Dunbar -- 26 Sep 01, 6:28 am
To me, a waste of time -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:23 pm
an observation -- Dunbar -- 1 Oct 01, 11:55 am
My great claim to fame :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Oct 01, 5:26 pm
I'm definitely impressed! -- Dunbar -- 2 Oct 01, 7:18 am
Jr. Mets, I believe -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Oct 01, 11:51 am
who was the handicapper nt (nt) -- steve -- 25 Sep 01, 2:14 pm
Contrariwise... -- James -- 25 Sep 01, 3:03 pm
One problem -- StevieY -- 25 Sep 01, 3:16 pm
selection bias? -- Lefty -- 25 Sep 01, 3:46 pm
some responses -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 3:59 pm
close games -- Vetsen -- 25 Sep 01, 4:39 pm
How to be sure?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 5:04 pm
I miswrote -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 6:58 pm
Math Boy, I AM the man! -- Goats -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 am
I somewhat agree (and my results)... -- MDMAniac -- 25 Sep 01, 6:11 pm
I strongly agree with your post. -- fezzik -- 25 Sep 01, 9:05 pm
More results (and commentary) -- Colin Caster -- 25 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
IMO, your post was the best in a great thread -- fezzik -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 pm
I have a different take on this thought provoking question: -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 6:11 am
I like your example -- Bad Cutter -- 26 Sep 01, 8:13 am
To me, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:29 pm
Excellent post. You may be correct. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 2:20 pm
The reason I think it's important... -- MDMAniac -- 26 Sep 01, 2:58 pm
Being better than the line -- StevieY -- 26 Sep 01, 4:23 pm
I'd like to meet you one day, Stevie -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 5:34 pm
It would be my honor (nt) -- StevieY -- 27 Sep 01, 7:50 pm
Typo -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Sep 01, 8:37 pm
You gotta learn to blame that on the keyboard (nt) -- Razor -- 28 Sep 01, 5:46 am
Right! :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Sep 01, 8:45 am

 

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