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not so obvious

Posted By: Dunbar
Date: 26 Sep 01, 6:28 am

In Response To: Obvious downfall (Don Schlesinger)

Guy goes 5-1. Wins all five games by one point and the one he loses is a blowout by 50! You decide he sucks! :-)

So long as wagers are decided by winning or losing to the spread -- and not by action points -- I don't think most of us care if we win a game by one or 41. And we shouldn't care about the loss, either.

I personally would not be overly excited by a handicapper who posted results like those. Squeaking by with a 1-pt margin doesn't add to my confidence that a handicapper knows what he's doing. Your comments are similar to saying that I'd rather be lucky than skillful.

That being said, I can imagine scenarios where losing by a lot and winning by a little would not be alarming. There may be a large subset of picks where you either win small or get blown away. (for example, teams with little depth in their defense might do well enough to win as long as their offense produces, but if the offense sputters the defense may collapse from exhaustion, resulting in big losses.)

I don't believe that, on average, when good handicappers lose, they tend to lose "more respectably" than weaker handicappers. To me, a loss is a loss.

This would be an interesting thing to look at.

--Dunbar

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Messages In This Thread

bad beats versus getting beaten badly -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 11:23 am
Obvious downfall -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 1:44 pm
not so obvious -- Dunbar -- 26 Sep 01, 6:28 am
To me, a waste of time -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:23 pm
an observation -- Dunbar -- 1 Oct 01, 11:55 am
My great claim to fame :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Oct 01, 5:26 pm
I'm definitely impressed! -- Dunbar -- 2 Oct 01, 7:18 am
Jr. Mets, I believe -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Oct 01, 11:51 am
who was the handicapper nt (nt) -- steve -- 25 Sep 01, 2:14 pm
Contrariwise... -- James -- 25 Sep 01, 3:03 pm
One problem -- StevieY -- 25 Sep 01, 3:16 pm
selection bias? -- Lefty -- 25 Sep 01, 3:46 pm
some responses -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 3:59 pm
close games -- Vetsen -- 25 Sep 01, 4:39 pm
How to be sure?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 5:04 pm
I miswrote -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 6:58 pm
Math Boy, I AM the man! -- Goats -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 am
I somewhat agree (and my results)... -- MDMAniac -- 25 Sep 01, 6:11 pm
I strongly agree with your post. -- fezzik -- 25 Sep 01, 9:05 pm
More results (and commentary) -- Colin Caster -- 25 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
IMO, your post was the best in a great thread -- fezzik -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 pm
I have a different take on this thought provoking question: -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 6:11 am
I like your example -- Bad Cutter -- 26 Sep 01, 8:13 am
To me, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:29 pm
Excellent post. You may be correct. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 2:20 pm
The reason I think it's important... -- MDMAniac -- 26 Sep 01, 2:58 pm
Being better than the line -- StevieY -- 26 Sep 01, 4:23 pm
I'd like to meet you one day, Stevie -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 5:34 pm
It would be my honor (nt) -- StevieY -- 27 Sep 01, 7:50 pm
Typo -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Sep 01, 8:37 pm
You gotta learn to blame that on the keyboard (nt) -- Razor -- 28 Sep 01, 5:46 am
Right! :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Sep 01, 8:45 am

 

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