General Forum

More results (and commentary)

Posted By: Colin Caster
Date: 25 Sep 01, 10:55 pm

In Response To: I somewhat agree (and my results)... (MDMAniac)

College YTD: 24-20-1 (54.5%)

24 wins by 309.5 points; mean = 12.9; median = 13.25
20 losses by 220 points; mean = 11; median = 6.75

(Obviously the latter distribution is highly skewed -- I had the under in the 70-35 BYU game. I agree with Stevie -- I'd almost rather lose by a million. I could have turned the game off at halftime and read a book. I didn't, but I *could* have. :-))

Total +89.5 points across 45 games; mean = 2.0; median = 1.5

I agree that it means something, just as Bill James' Pythagorean manipulation of Runs Scored and Runs Allowed means something. But as Don S. points out, it's small comfort to a loser, and the last thing a winner cares about. Also, in baseball, when a team achieves a good record relative to "Expected Wins," the manager is sometimes credited for the deviation. It would be tempting to do the same for a 'capper that squeaks by a lot of games (as in the "Clemens knows how to win" locution).

In any case it seems to me that it would be hard to develop percentile distributions around every possible pointspread. However, it might be possible to use the distribution of score deviations around *all* closing lines as a standard against which to compare the summary handicapping statistic that MDMAniac reported (i.e., mean deviation ATS, or median if we were concerned about the influence of outliers). It would be a very rough measure, but interesting.

Colin

Messages In This Thread

bad beats versus getting beaten badly -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 11:23 am

Obvious downfall -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 1:44 pm

not so obvious -- Dunbar -- 26 Sep 01, 6:28 am

To me, a waste of time -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:23 pm

an observation -- Dunbar -- 1 Oct 01, 11:55 am

My great claim to fame :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Oct 01, 5:26 pm

I'm definitely impressed! -- Dunbar -- 2 Oct 01, 7:18 am

Jr. Mets, I believe -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Oct 01, 11:51 am

who was the handicapper nt (nt) -- steve -- 25 Sep 01, 2:14 pm

Contrariwise... -- James -- 25 Sep 01, 3:03 pm

One problem -- StevieY -- 25 Sep 01, 3:16 pm

selection bias? -- Lefty -- 25 Sep 01, 3:46 pm

some responses -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 3:59 pm

close games -- Vetsen -- 25 Sep 01, 4:39 pm

How to be sure?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 5:04 pm

I miswrote -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 6:58 pm

Math Boy, I AM the man! -- Goats -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 am

I somewhat agree (and my results)... -- MDMAniac -- 25 Sep 01, 6:11 pm

I strongly agree with your post. -- fezzik -- 25 Sep 01, 9:05 pm

More results (and commentary) -- Colin Caster -- 25 Sep 01, 10:55 pm

IMO, your post was the best in a great thread -- fezzik -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 pm

I have a different take on this thought provoking question: -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 6:11 am

I like your example -- Bad Cutter -- 26 Sep 01, 8:13 am

To me, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:29 pm

Excellent post. You may be correct. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 2:20 pm

The reason I think it's important... -- MDMAniac -- 26 Sep 01, 2:58 pm

Being better than the line -- StevieY -- 26 Sep 01, 4:23 pm

I'd like to meet you one day, Stevie -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 5:34 pm

It would be my honor (nt) -- StevieY -- 27 Sep 01, 7:50 pm

Typo -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Sep 01, 8:37 pm

You gotta learn to blame that on the keyboard (nt) -- Razor -- 28 Sep 01, 5:46 am

Right! :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Sep 01, 8:45 am

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