[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

General Forum

I somewhat agree (and my results)...

Posted By: MDMAniac
Date: 25 Sep 01, 6:11 pm

In Response To: bad beats versus getting beaten badly (Math Boy)

I think that your margin of victory against the spread is important in shedding some light on your strength as a handicapper. No matter our methodology, we are basically saying that "our line" is more accurate than the oddsmakers. We should compare our accuracy in success against that in defeat. We often complain about bad beats, but never really talk about our fortunate wins. I think they are both important to examine.

This year so far I am 15-20-2 in college football. To someone who only analyzes records, but not methodology and margin of victory, that would look weak. But upon closer examination it looks a little better.

The 15 wins were by a combined 224 points.
The 20 losses were by a combined 182 1/2 points.
The 2 ties were obviously at 0 points.

So my average win was by 15 points.
My average loss was by 9.1 points.

Any average selection won by an average of about 1.11 points (41.5 points in 37 games). I am interested to hear the results of others. Obviously college and pro should be separated.

Later,

MDMAniac

Password:

Messages In This Thread

bad beats versus getting beaten badly -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 11:23 am
Obvious downfall -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 1:44 pm
not so obvious -- Dunbar -- 26 Sep 01, 6:28 am
To me, a waste of time -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:23 pm
an observation -- Dunbar -- 1 Oct 01, 11:55 am
My great claim to fame :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Oct 01, 5:26 pm
I'm definitely impressed! -- Dunbar -- 2 Oct 01, 7:18 am
Jr. Mets, I believe -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Oct 01, 11:51 am
who was the handicapper nt (nt) -- steve -- 25 Sep 01, 2:14 pm
Contrariwise... -- James -- 25 Sep 01, 3:03 pm
One problem -- StevieY -- 25 Sep 01, 3:16 pm
selection bias? -- Lefty -- 25 Sep 01, 3:46 pm
some responses -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 3:59 pm
close games -- Vetsen -- 25 Sep 01, 4:39 pm
How to be sure?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 5:04 pm
I miswrote -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 6:58 pm
Math Boy, I AM the man! -- Goats -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 am
I somewhat agree (and my results)... -- MDMAniac -- 25 Sep 01, 6:11 pm
I strongly agree with your post. -- fezzik -- 25 Sep 01, 9:05 pm
More results (and commentary) -- Colin Caster -- 25 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
IMO, your post was the best in a great thread -- fezzik -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 pm
I have a different take on this thought provoking question: -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 6:11 am
I like your example -- Bad Cutter -- 26 Sep 01, 8:13 am
To me, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:29 pm
Excellent post. You may be correct. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 2:20 pm
The reason I think it's important... -- MDMAniac -- 26 Sep 01, 2:58 pm
Being better than the line -- StevieY -- 26 Sep 01, 4:23 pm
I'd like to meet you one day, Stevie -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 5:34 pm
It would be my honor (nt) -- StevieY -- 27 Sep 01, 7:50 pm
Typo -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Sep 01, 8:37 pm
You gotta learn to blame that on the keyboard (nt) -- Razor -- 28 Sep 01, 5:46 am
Right! :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Sep 01, 8:45 am

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If you'd like to include a link to another page with your message,
please provide both the URL address and the title of the page:

Optional Link URL:
Optional Link Title:

If you'd like to have the option of deleting your post later,
please provide a password (CASE SENSITIVE!):

Password:

If you'd like e-mail notification of responses, please check this box:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

General Forum is maintained by Pi Yee Press