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Contrariwise...

Posted By: James
Date: 25 Sep 01, 3:03 pm

In Response To: bad beats versus getting beaten badly (Math Boy)

I think most of us are agreed that market lines are generally not off by 30 points from a "correct" line, especially not on high profile games.

When UCLA/OSU score only 20 points when lined at 50, I don't think many of us assume that in a hypothetical ensemble of "identical" games, the mean total would be 20. If the "true" mean total of this ensemble should be 45 or 42 instead of 50, the 20 point total is still an outlier. Yes, the total of 20 is more likely to come from a distribution centered at 42 than 50, but it's still a low probability event.

If a successful handicapper is aiming for a success rate of roughly 55%, those 1-2 point wins are EXACTLY the edge that he is looking for. That is, a successful handicapper is primarily looking for small mistakes in the line, especially around key numbers. Find a +3.5 line that you think should be +2.5, and that's a huge edge. Find a -8.5 line that you think should be -30? Shouldn't happen too often.

Hmmm.... maybe the reverse procedure would be better-- assume that any huge wins/losses are outliers and measure performance just on the close games? :) Yes, I know you went 10-4 this week, sir, but since 7 of your wins were blowout games, I've adjusted your results to 3-4 and decided you are a losing handicapper...

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Messages In This Thread

bad beats versus getting beaten badly -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 11:23 am
Obvious downfall -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 1:44 pm
not so obvious -- Dunbar -- 26 Sep 01, 6:28 am
To me, a waste of time -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:23 pm
an observation -- Dunbar -- 1 Oct 01, 11:55 am
My great claim to fame :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 1 Oct 01, 5:26 pm
I'm definitely impressed! -- Dunbar -- 2 Oct 01, 7:18 am
Jr. Mets, I believe -- Don Schlesinger -- 2 Oct 01, 11:51 am
who was the handicapper nt (nt) -- steve -- 25 Sep 01, 2:14 pm
Contrariwise... -- James -- 25 Sep 01, 3:03 pm
One problem -- StevieY -- 25 Sep 01, 3:16 pm
selection bias? -- Lefty -- 25 Sep 01, 3:46 pm
some responses -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 3:59 pm
close games -- Vetsen -- 25 Sep 01, 4:39 pm
How to be sure?? -- Don Schlesinger -- 25 Sep 01, 5:04 pm
I miswrote -- Math Boy -- 25 Sep 01, 6:58 pm
Math Boy, I AM the man! -- Goats -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 am
I somewhat agree (and my results)... -- MDMAniac -- 25 Sep 01, 6:11 pm
I strongly agree with your post. -- fezzik -- 25 Sep 01, 9:05 pm
More results (and commentary) -- Colin Caster -- 25 Sep 01, 10:55 pm
IMO, your post was the best in a great thread -- fezzik -- 26 Sep 01, 7:29 pm
I have a different take on this thought provoking question: -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 6:11 am
I like your example -- Bad Cutter -- 26 Sep 01, 8:13 am
To me, . . . -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 1:29 pm
Excellent post. You may be correct. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 2:20 pm
The reason I think it's important... -- MDMAniac -- 26 Sep 01, 2:58 pm
Being better than the line -- StevieY -- 26 Sep 01, 4:23 pm
I'd like to meet you one day, Stevie -- Don Schlesinger -- 26 Sep 01, 5:34 pm
It would be my honor (nt) -- StevieY -- 27 Sep 01, 7:50 pm
Typo -- Don Schlesinger -- 27 Sep 01, 8:37 pm
You gotta learn to blame that on the keyboard (nt) -- Razor -- 28 Sep 01, 5:46 am
Right! :-) -- Don Schlesinger -- 28 Sep 01, 8:45 am

 

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