General Forum

Volume

Posted By: RD
Date: 12 Sep 01, 8:21 am

In Response To: Being a settled line bettor vs. being a line settler - ??? re: RD's method. (samo666)

If you are trying to move large amounts in the sports betting market, you need liquidity. It is nice to bet at the "opening" number before it moves to a "settled" line, but if you are betting in size, you cannot get the bulk of your order filled. In addition, you are destroying your own market, since by playing and moving the opening line, you allow those that open at a more "settled" price to not take your action. Also, I believe that I have a "bad" bet when a line moves against me. I do not want to make these wagers. I need to do too much line movement prediction if I play into the openers.

For these reasons (and others), most of the plays by the larger sports bettors take place on game day. Of course, many of the lines may have moved out of range by then. But passing on a play, which is a topic seldom discussed here (but extremely important) becomes in integral part of the betting strategy. In addition, the "square" public does not bet until game day, so if part of your strategy is to fade the public, you need to wager late anyway.

Finally, in my opinion, betting into lines before they move is overrated. The linemaker is well aware of both the "wise guy" side and the "public" side of the game. Although the sample size is small, there has been no significant advantage to playing the various handicappers plays early before the lines move so far. (Passing has been a better strategy). In fact, I believe that betting into a line that moves against you is significantly more damaging to your bottom line than the questionable edge you might gain betting early. Of course, finding a line late (from a "slow" store) that you could have had earlier in the week but has since moved is a significant advantage in theory, but the credit risk to getting paid rises commensurately with the preceived edge.

Bottom line, as I have posted elsewhere before, there are multiple pieces to the betting strategy puzzle. In an ideal world, where there is plenty of liquidity at the opening prices and where the intra-week "trend" was unidirectional, betting into the opening lines would be the optimal strategy. But in the imperfect world of the sports betting market, it is better to use the "settled" line as the base, and make sure that your wager is at a price no worse than this line AND that the line "closes" at or worse (moves away from you) than the price at which you traded. Following this basic betting discipline is an absolute requirement to get to the 57 percent or so level that most sports bettors aspire. Again, in my opinion, raw team/to/team handicapping can get you above the 52.38 percent break even level, perhaps to 54 or 55 percent winners. The extra 1 or 2 percent needs to come from a betting strategy.

Messages In This Thread

Handicapping the Handicappers -- RD -- 10 Sep 01, 4:41 pm

capping the cappers -- lepto -- 10 Sep 01, 5:02 pm

Fine post-Keep the "experts" honest! (nt) -- f.sarlo -- 10 Sep 01, 7:17 pm

Additional comments re: Handicapping the Handicappers. -- samo666 -- 11 Sep 01, 4:49 am

Thanks. I was wondering -- lepto -- 11 Sep 01, 5:44 am

Being a settled line bettor vs. being a line settler - ??? re: RD's method. -- samo666 -- 11 Sep 01, 10:19 pm

Volume -- RD -- 12 Sep 01, 8:21 am

agree strongly -- bigplayer -- 12 Sep 01, 4:28 pm

Page owners power ratings. -- samo666 -- 26 Sep 01, 3:40 pm

Power ratings -- StevieY -- 30 Sep 01, 11:24 am

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