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General Forum

Euro soccer, aussie rules and Gaelic football

Posted By: John May
Date: 7 Sep 01, 7:20 am

In Response To: mls vig (baba looey)

i have been grappling (unsuccessfully so far) with working out how to beat euro soccer lines (usually 10%+ vig) and other sports with high vig charges (eg australian rules football...about 7%)...

how do you do it???

European soccer is extremely tough to beat. The bookies have a wealth of data to draw on and usually the line is very accurate with a high vig to overcome. I don't believe handicapping can succeed on its own, at least in the sense of providing a worthwhile return on investment.

However, the huge range of markets offers significant arbitrage opportunities. Englishman Jacques Black managed to clear 30,000 pounds sterling (about US $50,000, sorry don't know aussie conversion rate) just hopping from bookie to bookie betting lines out of step with the consensus. I'd concentrate on pricing inefficencies and give the handicapping a back seat.

Haven't bet Aussie rules but I managed to turn a significant profit at gaelic football, which I played semi-professionally for a while, which is a very similar code. Gaelic football is poorly understood by oddsmakers who underestimate the psychological factor inherent in such a violent game-my guess is this is true of the Australian game also. From what I've seen the most successful teams in Oz employ strict math criteria as to point-scoring strategy-maybe their is angle here also.

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Messages In This Thread

MLS and CFL weeken picks -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 11:18 am
mls vig -- baba looey -- 6 Sep 01, 9:33 pm
agree on vig being high -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 9:54 pm
thx...interesting but... -- baba looey -- 6 Sep 01, 10:09 pm
two reasons -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 10:30 pm
mls draws??? -- baba looey -- 7 Sep 01, 12:03 am
ot = draw -- docriver -- 7 Sep 01, 4:56 am
thx...i follow now (nt) -- baba looey -- 9 Sep 01, 5:51 pm
ps -- baba looey -- 6 Sep 01, 10:11 pm
Euro soccer, aussie rules and Gaelic football -- John May -- 7 Sep 01, 7:20 am
v interesting...more info pls -- baba looey -- 9 Sep 01, 5:49 pm
odds better at WSEX -- docriver -- 6 Sep 01, 10:43 pm
Soccer page? -- John May -- 7 Sep 01, 7:07 am
good idea...i will contribute (nt) -- baba looey -- 9 Sep 01, 5:52 pm
another CFL pick -- docriver -- 8 Sep 01, 9:47 pm
results -- docriver -- 9 Sep 01, 11:41 pm

 

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