General Forum

Fezzik on SSB: Review and Preview

Posted By: fezzik
Date: 4 Sep 01, 2:18 am

During the season, I will continue to post my best bets weighted 1-5 in my boxseats. Yes, I personally bet 5 times as much on my highest weighted plays vs. lowest weighted. I do NOT advocate ever betting 5% of one's bankroll on any play. I'd suggest a conservative approach of .4% of bankroll on a 1 weight, 2% for a 5 weight. I'd also suggest that you NOT blindly follow me. If you disagree on any opinion I have, just pass on that game. I have numerous profitable angles/situations that I have bet and won with for years, and will continue to win with. As an overall group they should do very well, but I will have games that I'll unfortunately be on the wrong side of. I would suggest you increase your bet size on any game you can get a great "generally unavailable outlaw line" that is better than what most books are posting. I use some handicapping in my picks, but rely primarily on a great deal of solid situational betting situations, such as looking to play almost all double digit NFL home dogs. My greatest value added is showing how bets at different spreads and odds can be evaluated along with proposition bets. Want to know if you should play a first half over 17 -110 or over 16 -130? I'll show you how to evaluate which is the better bet! Also, you'll find I love to disagree with any strong public opinion. Put someone on the cover of Sports Illustrated? Look to bet against them.

2001 YTD results:

166-106 (61.0%). NFL preseason Teasers were a big part of this record. Taking out the teasers, I was 107-82 (56.6%).

2000 Bj21 results:

52.7%. I had the worst possible September and October, and was 45% ATS late in October. Frankly, I was holding back some of my stronger plays at bj21 early, but even with them, I would have been well under 50% on 10/30. I rallied strongly the final months to get above the 52.4% level.

Season wins documented results (from Arnold Snyder's summer editions, Blackjack Forum):

2000: 1-0.
1999: 1-0.

Season Wins has always been one of my most profitable areas. I previously posted my college season win picks including my No1 College opinion which was Northwestern under for their season wins (opened 8.5, still a good under at the current 7.5 line). I will be posting all my Final NFL Season Wins this week. Hint: if you are a Giant fan, you may want to skip that Giants to win the superbowl bet. If you are a Browns fan, I have good news for you: your Browns should sail well over 4.5 wins.

My personal history? I have had very good results betting. A lot of this has been through sharp shooting good numbers that are floated to me from books with "out of whack" lines. Although these won't be official picks of mine, I will be available to help you evaluate whether some specific situations are profitable. Note that I am a bettor not a tout. I am doing this primarily to facilitate an exchange of ideas to improve MY bottom line betting and winning. There are some great ideas and talent out there. Put us all together, and we should do much, much better than working independently.

An example? Doc River's excellent suggestion we look to bet more on good teaser situations where the totals are very low. Obviously, 6 extra points on a 31 point total is worth at least a little more than a 47 point total. As in most things in life, it's obvious only AFTER someone brings it up!

Messages In This Thread

Fezzik on SSB: Review and Preview -- fezzik -- 4 Sep 01, 2:18 am

Want to enhance YOUR bottom line? -- Prospect -- 4 Sep 01, 10:54 am

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