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Devil's advocate

Posted By: StevieY
Date: 2 Sep 01, 2:26 pm

In Response To: Devil's advocate (James) 


>i>"StevieY has said that he will provide analyis with his NFL picks once the

regular season starts, but his few preseason picks have been 

"automatic" plays with no analysis attached." 



I posted with my first preseason selections my reasoning for preseason.

There is no thought process required for preseason. 4 simple things to look at.

 

1. Play against home favorites who had worse records than their opponents 

the year before. Why are they favorites? Simply because people overreact 

to the how the good teams prepare for the season. At this point, they are sick 

of hitting each other. Even if the regulars don't play much, the regulars 

for the home fav aren't going to play much either. You need depth to win. Week 

1, the wrong team is favored. 

 

                  Year      W L T

                  1998      3-0-1

                  1999      4-1-0

                  2000      2-1-0

                  2001      5-1-0

                  Total    14-3-1  82.4%

 

2. Play against a home dog with a worse record the year before in the last 

week of preseason. That is about the time the good teams are hitting their 

stride, starters play a little longer sometimes. The spread is rarely high enough. 

 

                  Year      W L T

                  1998      1-0-0

                  1999      2-1-0

                  2000      3-0-0

                  2001      0-1-0 

                  Total     6-2-0  75.0%

 

3. Play road dogs with a worse record the year before with 2 exceptions.

 Don't play the last week, like above, good teams are hitting their stride, and

 don't play if the opponent has played a game and your team hasn't. Usually in 

the middle of the preseason schedule, the good team coast, they want to get a 

good look at their bench, since usually, the starting jobs are secure, 

while the "worse" team will usually have many positions, especially skill 

positions, open. 

 

                  Year      W  L  T

                  1998     10- 3- 0

                  1999      8- 6- 0

                  2000     11- 5- 0

                  2001     13- 7- 1

                  Total    42-21- 1   66.7%

 

4. Play all dogs +7.5 and up. In a preseason game, it should rarely, if ever, 

be this high, but it is. 

 

                  Year      W L T

                  1998      4-0-0

                  1999      4-2-0

                  2000      1-0-0

                  2001      1-0-0

                  Total    10-2-0  83.3%

 

Put all 4 together, year by year, and you have winning seasons with no 

thinking required.  Anyone who knows me knows I rarely play angles or trends 

during any season, but preseason is scripted, you know what is going to happen

before it starts, and you know the veterans could give a shit.

 

                       All combined

                  Year       W  L  T

                  1998      18- 3- 1

                  1999      18-10- 0

                  2000      17- 6- 0

                  2001      19- 9- 0

                  Total     70-28- 1  71.4%

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Messages In This Thread

Are Forum Host's records going to be posted in public? -- docriver -- 1 Sep 01, 9:06 am
Free Period Over Too Soon -- Newbie -- 1 Sep 01, 9:51 am
We have a liberal guarantee -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 10:02 am
Good point but... -- Newbie -- 1 Sep 01, 10:48 am
thought process is key -- docriver -- 1 Sep 01, 11:15 am
I couldn't agree with you more... -- Newbie -- 1 Sep 01, 12:34 pm
answers -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 1:37 pm
Devil's advocate -- James -- 1 Sep 01, 8:43 pm
they need to sell themselves -- docriver -- 1 Sep 01, 9:08 pm
Devil's advocate -- StevieY -- 2 Sep 01, 2:26 pm
Sorry. -- James -- 2 Sep 01, 5:07 pm
I also agree -- Prospect -- 1 Sep 01, 8:25 pm
Exactly! -- rwp -- 3 Sep 01, 10:06 am
I'll be posting my picks and record on the free forum -- Stanford Wong -- 1 Sep 01, 9:51 am

 

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