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Some more detail

Posted By: John May
Date: 1 Sep 01, 3:43 am

In Response To: Would you provide.... (Roz)

Actually I disremembered. The vulgar economic model was created by Paul Hiniker in a letter to the Economist magazine on 8 October 1988.
The Hiniker model starts by giving the two main parties a base vote of 49% of the electorate. Incumbency then adds 4.5%. Each % point in the growth of real income per head adds 1.4% for the incumbent, which each point rise in inflation subtracts 0.6 from the incumbents vote.

The Fisk model, created by Margaret Cronin Fisk in the Gamblers Bible (out-of-print, over twenty years old) is a rather more sophisticated "point-count" system covering a broader range of factors too detailed to go into here. I'm writing an in-depth article on presidential betting for the e-zine I write every now and then which will include this information and a comprehensive review of Black's book. If you sign up through the link below you'll get it delivered to your mail box in a few days.

The Gambler's R&D Newsletter

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Messages In This Thread

Products we should carry? -- Stanford Wong -- 27 Aug 01, 7:33 am
Data of lines -- docriver -- 27 Aug 01, 12:37 pm
Data Sets -- Knuth -- 27 Aug 01, 5:27 pm
Trade... -- Editor -- 28 Aug 01, 8:39 am
A suggestion -- John May -- 29 Aug 01, 1:52 pm
Would you provide.... -- Roz -- 29 Aug 01, 6:38 pm
Some more detail -- John May -- 1 Sep 01, 3:43 am
correlation -- docriver -- 3 Sep 01, 11:56 pm
The case study -- John May -- 4 Sep 01, 2:18 am

 

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