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I like picks to be against available lines

Posted By: Stanford Wong
Date: 30 Aug 01, 5:33 pm

In Response To: Monitoring crap... (MDMAniac)

Personally, I cannot believe all I am reading about how we should monitor based upon market lines and those that are generally available. What crap! Sports betting is about shopping lines and “backing up the truck” on the true outliers. Just because you post a line that is not generally available doesn’t make you a scamdicapper, it makes you a good bettor. Folks, that is why these people have their own pages and you are paying for their advice. Because they know what they are doing. You don’t win by paying for some selections, turning to one or two outs, and then betting the games. It’s not like that at all. Rate these people against a market line and they’ll do how you would do against a market line with their picks; pretty average. But let them do their thing and the money will be made. If you trust them enough to pay for their selections you should trust them enough to know that these lines are available. You aren’t just paying for picks, you are paying for the whole class.

If somebody's selections are rated against a market line and come up "pretty average" (meaning close to 50 percent winners), then all the gain from betting those selections comes from shopping. If you bet that person's picks: You'd better be able to find those same prices, and you'd better find them for all (or almost all) the games picked, unless you want to find yourself hitting 50 percent winners.

If, on the other hand, you follow a handicapper who does well against market lines, then it's easy for you to make money. You can outperform that handicapper by shopping for good lines, and it does not matter if you bet just a few of the picks.

Being a winning bettor is not the same thing as posting good picks. It's possible for someone to make big bucks "shopping lines and backing up the truck on the true outliers" and tell us about it without us being able to duplicate the feat. It's fun to read the posts of people who have done that, even if we can't make any good bets based on their posts.

There also are people whose picks you can take to the bank. TwoMinuteWarning is an example. When TwoMinuteWarning posts picks that are projected to have a high probability of winning, you can easily find those numbers or better, and bet those picks yourself and do well.

Stanford Wong

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Messages In This Thread

Monitoring crap... -- MDMAniac -- 30 Aug 01, 3:12 pm
I like picks to be against available lines -- Stanford Wong -- 30 Aug 01, 5:33 pm
"Available lines" is the correct word -- Fezzik -- 31 Aug 01, 1:57 am
I Second That -- urban33 -- 31 Aug 01, 7:53 am

 

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