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General Forum
NFL Turnover Difference 1983-2000
Posted By: TwoMinuteWarning.com
Date: 30 Aug 01, 11:40 am
Q: Can you give an updated look at how the "Turnover Difference" system has done? I know the original article listed a very good record for several season, but how has it performed in other years? Do you have any additional tips for using this strategy? Turnover Difference revisited
A: To refresh everyone's memory, the "T/O Difference" angle involves looking atthe net turnovers on the year for each team in a matchup and playing the team with the WORSE net turnovers provided their record was at least 1/2 turnover per game poorer than their opponent. For instance if Team A is -1.5 turnovers a game and Team B is +0.5 turnovers then the strategy would call for playing Team A since they have the worse record and in this case it's 2.0 turnovers per game different -- far more than the 0.5 cutoff. For the full text of the original article read Turnover Difference Theory.
We'll take a look at this approach using a database that includes all the games played from week 5 through week 12 (the heart of the season) from 1983-2000:
T/O Diff 0.5 - 0.9 1.0 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.9 2.0 - 2.4 2.5+ Diff ALL HomeFavs 87 - 68 50 - 29 28 - 16 11 - 11 9 - 9 185 - 133 HomeDogs 72 - 54 51 - 41 38 - 21 17 - 17 27 - 20 205 - 153 AwayFavs 28 - 29 13 - 8 11 - 8 4 - 2 2 - 0 58 - 47 AwayDogs 129 - 89 78 - 76 45 - 42 28 - 22 24 - 14 304 - 243 Favorites 115 - 97 63 - 37 39 - 24 15 - 13 11 - 9 243 - 180 Underdogs 201 - 143 129 - 117 83 - 63 45 - 39 51 - 34 509 - 396 Home Teams 159 - 122 101 - 70 66 - 37 28 - 28 36 - 29 390 - 286 Away Teams 157 - 118 91 - 84 56 - 50 32 - 24 26 - 14 362 - 290 ALL PICKS 316 - 240 192 - 154 122 - 87 60 - 52 62 - 43 752 - 576 WIN % 57 % 55 % 58 % 54 % 59 % 57 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5 Favorites 16 - 13 66 - 60 161 - 107 Underdogs 89 - 74 209 - 145 211 - 177 ANALYSIS: That's a pretty impressive record for 18 years of play! The overall percentage works out to be 56.6% before the rounding up, but that is still a mighty fine mark for one-factor handicapping! Of course we did limit the timeframe to weeks 5 thru 12 and the results from week 13 on are strictly in 50/50 territory, which raises the question of whether there is a legitimate reason to assume the system fades in the final stages of the regular season and playoffs. One idea might be that the method is based on viewing the turnovers as having a lot of luck involved (eg a team is under-rated because it has been unlucky and fumbled a lot). After a certain point however you could argue that luck would seem a less likely cause! ~ for half a season any team can have some bad breaks...a team with a whole season of misfortune is simply bad.
Of particular interest in the breakouts are small favorites (0 to 4.5 pts) with the seeming turnover disadvantage, and mid-sized underdogs (5 to 9.5 pts) that have likewise been "turnover challenged" coming into the game.
The next concern is "what have you done for me lately?" -- and here are the results from 1997-2000:
T/O Diff 0.5 - 0.9 1.0 - 1.4 1.5 - 1.9 2.0 - 2.4 2.5+ Diff ALL HomeFavs 24 - 13 13 - 8 5 - 4 3 - 2 4 - 3 49 - 30 HomeDogs 16 - 15 10 - 7 7 - 4 2 - 4 3 - 9 38 - 39 AwayFavs 9 - 10 1 - 2 2 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 15 AwayDogs 22 - 16 21 - 16 14 - 12 6 - 7 5 - 4 68 - 55 Favorites 33 - 23 14 - 10 7 - 6 3 - 3 4 - 3 61 - 45 Underdogs 38 - 31 31 - 23 21 - 16 8 - 11 8 - 13 106 - 94 Home Teams 40 - 28 23 - 15 12 - 8 5 - 6 7 - 12 87 - 69 Away Teams 31 - 26 22 - 18 16 - 14 6 - 8 5 - 4 80 - 70 ALL PICKS 71 - 54 45 - 33 28 - 22 11 - 14 12 - 16 167 - 139 WIN % 57 % 58 % 56 % 44 % 43 % 55 %
Spread Range 10+ points 5 to 9.5 0 to 4.5 Favorites 2 - 2 12 - 13 47 - 30 Underdogs 16 - 17 48 - 39 42 - 38 ANALYSIS: The recent results have been slightly less stellar than the full 18 year breakout, and particularly revealing is that the really severe differences (when our playable team is 2+ turnovers a game worse than its opponent) have been horrendous! For all the parity that does exist in the NFL, the truly bad teams each season appear to be getting further and further away from the mean!
Home favorites are very strong, while away dogs are squarely in the plus column. It should be noted that the 2000 season was the worst in a long time for this approach, suggesting to some that the turnover system is past its prime, but we look for a bounce-back from the "bouncing ball syndrome" in 2001. There will be a column every week during the season to discuss the turnover situation for each matchup.
In the TwoMinuteWarning.com Box Seats section we will also post a look at how this system performs when limited to "net fumbles" and "net interceptions"...
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